U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Uncertainty Grows Amid Fluctuating Forecasts

The possibility of the United States incorporating Bitcoin into its financial reserves remains highly controversial.

Many experts, especially in the near future, consider the opportunity to be narrow, as uncertainty dominates the discussions in the crypto community.

Bitcoin Reserve Odds Drop As US Policy Analysts Predict Pushback

Forecasting platforms and analysts offer contrasting views on the possibility of Bitcoin entering the US reserve strategy. Polymarket users assign only a 29% chance that President-elect Donald Trump will introduce the Bitcoin Reserve within his first 100 days in office. This represents a decline from the post-election peak of optimism, which reached 60 percent.

This decline reflects broader skepticism about Bitcoin's place in US financial policy. Advocates see Bitcoin as a natural complement to existing reserves like gold and oil. But critics argue that political opposition and the current economic climate make such a move unlikely.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Joo doubts the feasibility of the US adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset under the Trump administration. They point out that such a change can only come about when the country's global economic dominance is seriously threatened.

Ju drew parallels between today's Bitcoin advocates and past campaigns to return to the gold standard. In both cases, these efforts positioned alternative assets as solutions to economic uncertainty.

However, historical trends point against single-property. For example, in the late 1990s calls to restore the gold standard were rejected, as the US opted to create a way out of economic challenges. Ju predicts that bitcoin will face a similar push unless the country's economic situation weakens.

“If Trump succeeds in demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. economy, strengthening the dominance of the dollar, and increasing his acceptance rate, it is unclear whether he will continue his strong Bitcoin stance during the campaign. He could easily back away from Bitcoin advocacy, citing priorities without alienating his voter base.”

Despite the skepticism, some experts champion Bitcoin's potential role in shaping global finance. VanEck's Matthew Siegel recently argued that the US could reduce its national debt by as much as 36 percent by 2050 by adopting a strategic bitcoin reserve. Siegel predicts that Bitcoin will become the leading settlement currency in global trade, especially for countries seeking to bypass US sanctions.

Meanwhile, some market observers believe that the move could take place in 2026. Kalshi, a New York-based forecasting market platform open to US participants, has put the probability of a Bitcoin rally in January 2026 at 56 percent.