US Bitcoin Reserve Odds Rise in Betting Markets
After US-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20th, the chances of establishing strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserves are increasing, at least on the Kalshi and Polymarket markets.
Bettors on Kalshi, an American derivatives exchange, put the probability of Trump creating an American BTC reserve in 2026 at about 70%. Users on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction platform, predict that Trump has a 42% chance of winning in the first 100 days.
Odds on both betting platforms have increased by around 20% since the start of January, the data shows. Bettors also expect BTC and Ether (ETH) to hit record highs in 2025.
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating based on expected outcomes.
Polymarket and Kalshi rose to prominence during the US election in November, with over $4 billion worth of business linked to the US presidential race alone. They proved to be more accurate than traditional polls in predicting not only Trump's victory, but also his party's victory in the US House and Senate.
Trump spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, promising to make America the global crypto capital. Source: Bitcoin Magazine
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Big expectations
In July, Trump pledged to create a “strategic national bitcoin reserve” at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, saying the administration would never sell the US government's bitcoin holdings.
In November, US Senator Cynthia Lammis, known as the “Crypto Queen” of Capitol Hill, proposed the BITCOIN Act, which would require the Treasury Department to purchase 1 million BTC over 5 years, establishing the US Bitcoin Reserve.
Trump has doubled down on his pro-crypto rhetoric in recent weeks, raising hopes in the industry that the president-elect will keep his promises.
On January 16, the New York Post reported that Trump would approve expanding the possible reserve to include a broader basket of cryptocurrencies, including the US dollar coin (USDC), Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP).
Trump also reportedly plans to sign an executive order designating crypto as a national priority as soon as he takes office on January 20.
Establishing a BTC reserve in the US will accelerate Bitcoin adoption from the 2024 launch of an exchange-traded fund (ETF), cryptocurrency researcher CoinShares said in a January 10 blog post.
“We believe the passage of the Bitcoin Act in the United States will have a more profound long-term impact on Bitcoin than the launch of ETFs,” CoinShares said.
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