US Iran Ceasefire Bitcoin, Stocks: Will It Hold?

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The US-Iran ceasefire boosted stock markets and Bitcoin, but BTC derivatives suggest limited bullish momentum.

Legal impasses between the United States and Iran and a “frazzled truce” are on the cards, with a $68,000 correction to keep the bears on their toes.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged 6% in less than four hours on Tuesday, following the results of global stock markets after the US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire. The rally caught traders off guard, prompting $280 million in liquidity in Bitcoin futures markets.

Bitcoin bears could be in trouble if the war in Iran effectively subsides, but BTC derivatives indicate that a sustained rally above $80,000 may take longer than expected.

Bitcoin's high correlation with S&P 500 futures suggests that BTC's rally is mainly driven by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump has said Iran's nuclear program will be destroyed in return for tariff and sanctions relief. However, Bitcoin bears lost hope after US Vice President JD Vance called the Iran ceasefire a “broken truce”.

Constant inflation and weak Bitcoin derivatives parameters

A sustained pessimism could lead to lower oil prices and lower inflation, paving the way for expansionary monetary policies. The US Federal Reserve has remained reluctant to cut interest rates despite signs of a weak labor market. Traders who had previously exited the risk market changed their minds as the severe economic impact receded.

While $280 million in forced liquidation positions accelerated the rally, BTC derivatives positions did not show any major changes.

Bitcoin futures total open interest reached 593,930 BTC on Wednesday, up 2.5% from Tuesday. Crucially, liquidations of $200 million to $300 million are relatively common, having occurred five other times in the past 90 days. This example of $280 million is small compared to the total futures position of $42 billion.

Bitcoin futures' annualized premium against regular spot markets stood at 3% on Wednesday, flat from two days earlier. A lack of demand for bullish positions has pushed the index below the neutral 4% threshold since late January.

Bitcoin options have prevailed over the last couple of weeks due to declining demand protection. Put (put) options outperformed call (call) instruments, despite self-serving fear levels seen on March 26.

Will Regulatory Barriers Derail Bitcoin's Rally?

Bitcoin bulls' confidence has already been hit by the October 10, 2025, flash crash, frustration with regulation and lack of progress on the US strategic bitcoin reserve. The final draft of the PARITY Act failed to include tax-free payments for small Bitcoin payments or deferred capital gains for mining. Also, David Sachs stepped down from his White House AI and cryptocurrency portfolio on March 26.

RELATED: Iran Weighing Crypto Fees for Ships Using Strait of Hormuz–Report

In the year Despite frequent mentions from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant of “budget neutral” strategies to acquire bitcoin without adding new taxes, no clear path has been outlined. At the same time, the US Democratic Party has called for regulators to investigate the Trump family for potential conflicts of interest.

Despite the recent rally, there is no indication that Bitcoin bears are rushing to close their shorts. Inflation hasn't gone away yet, with Brent crude oil prices at $95 a barrel at the end of February, up from $72 a barrel. After all, a two-week ceasefire is far from a long-term solution, leaving the possibility of a correction to $68,000 wide open.