Van Eyck predicts no BTC-ETH flip, doubles on post-halving scenario

Investment management firm VanEck has released its 2024 forecast, predicting not only record-breaking highs for Bitcoin, but also expected highs in the NFT market, signaling a major shift in the industry.

The introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs is expected to coincide with expectations of a long-term US recession, but the upcoming halving event may not have as much of an impact as previously anticipated.

A new peak for Bitcoin but no reversal for Ethereum in 2024.

According to VanEck's prediction, Bitcoin could reach an all-time high in Q4 2024. Optimistic about dismantling the SEC's anti-regulatory stance, Bitcoin could hit a new high on November 9th, just three years from its previous peak in November 2021.

Ether is not expected to outperform Bitcoin in its post-halving performance and may be better for the year, but it is not expected to “overturn” completely. In the year Despite a strong performance in 2024, other smart contract platforms such as Solana are projected to lose market share to Ether due to a more unclear and uncertain transition roadmap.

Meanwhile, the first introduction of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) may coincide with the US recession.

VanEyck also said that the 4th bitcoin halving scheduled for April 2024 will happen with minimal drama. By halving the cost of minting new coins, unprofitable miners can go out of business, allowing those with a cost-effective energy source to capture a larger market share.

Despite this, public markets are expected to face less stress due to the improved financial position of listed miners, which currently control about 25% of the world's hash volume. After the halving, at least one publicly traded miner is expected to increase tenfold by the end of the year.

Turning points for Binance and DEXes

Following Binance's $4 billion deal with US regulators, it is expected to vacate its position as the largest centralized exchange by volume. Highly funded competitors such as OKX, Bybit, Coinbase and Bitget are set to compete for the leadership position.

As Binance undergoes a rigorous three-year DOJ investigation, VanEck predicted that Coinbase's global futures market will grow, surpassing $1 billion in daily volume, a significant increase of approximately $200 million per day by November 2023.

The market share of dot kriptovalyutnogo trading on decentralized exchanges (DEX) is expected to reach an unprecedented level, driven by the improved chain transaction experience through high-productivity chains such as Solana.

Likewise, the adoption of highly improved wallets that integrate “account summarization” as a critical feature to make automated payments will contribute to more users engaging in chain transactions and adopting self-protection solutions.