VanEck Says He Could Setup Bitcoin Hashrate Dip 2026 Rally

Low prices and high costs have added to mining stress as hash volumes plunged to their highest decline since April 2024.

According to VanEck's latest Bitcoin ChainCheck, Bitcoin (BTC) has plunged into a difficult peak until 2025, pushing the network's hash rate by roughly 4% in 30 days due to increased selling pressure in December.

In the year The drop, associated with Bitcoin's weakest fourth quarter since 2018, is being framed by VanEck as a rare setup ahead of strong long-term returns rather than prolonged weakness.

Hashrate Drop, Mining Stress and Divergence in Investor Behavior

After briefly trading around $81,000 in late November, Bitcoin's price fell 9% last month to around $87,000 and struggled through December. According to Van Eyck, volatility has soared more than 45%, the highest level since April, as speculative demand for food has cooled significantly. Fixed-term fund futures also fell to an annual rate of roughly 5%, below the annual average, reducing leverage in derivatives markets.

Against this backdrop, the investment firm pointed to mining stress as a key development. The network's hashing power, measured by its 30-day moving average, has indicated its biggest retracement since April 2024.

Profitability has been boosted by lower prices and increased competition, the report said, adding that electricity costs for the aging S19 XP miners fell to $0.08 per kilo from $0.12 a year ago. The shutdown in China's Xinjiang region may have eliminated nearly 10% of the world's hash power as authorities divert it to AI data centers.

“Network hash speed has decreased by 4%, the largest decrease since April 2024,” VanEck wrote.

At the same time, capital flows showed a fragmented market. Bitcoin ETP holdings fell by 120 basis points on the month, while corporate digital asset treasuries added 42,000 BTC, the largest holdings since July. The strategy has worked for most acquisitions using its ability to provide equity, while others have stalled.

You may also like:

Why VanEck sees long-term growth despite weak prices

On-chain data paint a mixed picture with medium-term holders, particularly BTC floated one to five years ago, reducing exposure, while the oldest cohorts have largely held firm. Van Eyck describes this as the “difference of diamond hands,” where short-cycle participants exit while long-term holders stay.

Historically, the declining hash rate has favored patient investors. VanEck's analysis shows that while 90-day hash rate growth has turned negative, Bitcoin's 180-day returns have been positive 77% of the time, with an average return of about 72%.

“The 90-day hash rate growth outperformed the 180-day forward returns by +2,400 bps at a time when buying BTC was more negative than at any other time in history,” the report said.

Meanwhile, price action remains weak, with Bitcoin down nearly 22% over the past three months, marking its worst Q4 since the 2018 crash. However, some market watchers argue that the selloff reflects a reset rather than lasting damage. Analyst Psychedelic writes that the recent weakness represents a structural cooling phase and not a break in Bitcoin's long-term trend.

For now, VanEck's take may offer traders cautious optimism. While weak on-chain activity and mining pressures still weigh on sentiment, improving liquidity conditions and leverage reduction are building the groundwork for a healthy cycle, with 2026 shaping up to be a horizon where today's worries can be priced in.