Weekly Bitcoin buying leads to the best returns in both bull and bear markets.

Smart investors adjust their strategies during bear markets and the 50% decline seen in Bitcoin (BTC) over the past five months. Known as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), the strategy involves investing the same amount at regular intervals regardless of market conditions.

Historical market cycle data and forward-looking BTC price simulations provide a clearer view of how these fixed investment patterns will develop over different trading periods and time horizons.

The five-year Bitcoin DCA stack shows strong net gains

Starting in January 2021, a weekly purchase of $250 worth of Bitcoin would invest $67,500 over a five-year period. Based on DCA simulation data, the strategy accumulated 1.65097905 BTC with an average purchase price of $40,884.

At a Bitcoin price near $71,000, 1.65097905 BTC is valued at $120,518, which is a $53,018 return on investment capital (76%). When Bitcoin traded at $100,000, its holdings were worth about $165,098, at the peak of the cycle near $126,000 in October 2025, the same amount reached $208,023.

A shorter stock window shows how the entry period changes previous results as the strategy builds exposure. The $250 weekly DCA has invested 28,500 since January 2024 with an average of 0.36863166 BTC at a purchase price of $77,312.

At the current price of $71000, the amount is estimated at around $26,909, a -6% unrealized loss. At $100,000, the holdings rose to $36,863, the $126,000 cycle high for Bitcoin at $46,448.

In a February X post, Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston compared the same DCA approach to stocks over the past five years. The $100 weekly allocation produced 42,508 in Bitcoin versus $37,470 in the S&P 500 (SPX), representing returns of 62.9% and 43.6%.

Livingstone says he has consistently bought bitcoin despite price volatility, which has historically yielded strong cumulative results.

RELATED: Bitcoin's bullish pace accelerates, but raising $78K is a challenge.

Long-term models emphasize the time horizon

Forward-looking simulations examine how the DCA strategy will perform from 2026 onwards. A weekly DCA of $250 starting in January 2026 will amount to $54,250 in March 2030.

Price estimates are Bitcoin's long-term power-law growth curve, which tracks Bitcoin's historical price over time on a logarithmic scale. The model creates a rising support band and midtrend that is broadly consistent with previous market cycles.

Using this framework, analysts estimate that long-term trend support could move above $100,000 by 2028, which will form the basis of future DCA modeling. Tokens from Bitcoin Well put the average price at $430,278 in March 2030.

To capture the wide range around that path, the model takes into account power-law channel deviation bands, creating a lower projection around $274,000 and a higher expansion scenario near $900,000.

With those assumptions, the weekly strategy would accumulate about 0.30 BTC in four years.

At $274,000, the holdings are worth about $82,200.

With an average estimate of $430,278, the investment value comes to $129,000.

At a price of 900,000 BTC, the investment is worth about 270,000 dollars.

In the year A November 2025 study by Bitcoin researcher Smithson tested how the timing of introductions affects long-term outcomes using similar predictions. Buying 20% ​​above $94,000 (BTC price at that time) and exiting 20% ​​below the projected 2035 median still yielded a nearly 300% return on remaining holdings ten years later.

Total savings in the simulation reached 7.7 times the initial capital.

The study suggested that the time of entry moderated the range of effects and that longer durations produced the most effects.

Related: Guard Parade? Why Bitcoin Analysts Say BTC Price Should Hold $70K