What to expect from Bitcoin (BTC) in September

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been somewhat disappointing following the decline at the beginning and end of August.

The broader outlook for the king crypto asset is still weak, but some macroeconomic developments could change this outcome.

Next for Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently hovering below $60,000 following a 7.5% drop last week. The coming month is likely to continue this trend until Uptober arrives, when investors expect BTC's recovery to resume.

“September has historically been a negative month for Bitcoin, with data showing an average price decline of 6.56%. Investor sentiment around Bitcoin is negative as the coin has traded between $49,000 and $66,000 so far this month,” Innocent Essers, founder and CEO of Peybis, told BeenCrypto.

However, Essers revealed the possibility of a devaluation, which the macro-financial market has been waiting for.

“If the Fed cuts interest rates in September, it could help Bitcoin rewrite its negative history, as devaluations generally lead to an excessive flow of US dollars into the economy. This reduces the dollar's purchasing power, further strengthening Bitcoin's view as a store of value. Many institutional investors see this point as highly Bitcoin stocks are proving a shift to riskier assets with higher growth potential if the Fed's policies weaken the dollar, Esser said.

This result corresponds to the position of the macro market value to real value (MVRV) ratio. The MVRV ratio evaluates the investor's profit and loss. Currently, Bitcoin's 90-day MVRV stands at -4.8%, which indicates profitability and buying pressure.

Historically, Bitcoin MVRV between -2% and -12% indicated the start of a recovery and rally. These instances have been mentioned in mid-June 2023, early October 2023 and most recently in early July this year.

Read more: What Happened in the Last Half of Bitcoin? Predictions for 2024

Since investors get capital at low prices, in such cases they move to add BTC to their wallets, marking -2% to -12% as a zone of accumulation opportunity. If history repeats itself, BTC will be ready to realize it's clean and make a big move at the end of the month.

BTC Price Prediction: Upside But Not Breakout

There are two outcomes for the price of Bitcoin in September. The first is a more pragmatic approach based on recent signals, which suggest that BTC will remain below $68,300. This obstacle prevents the king of crypto from breaking more often and considering bearish conditions, this may happen again.

The second result is a breakout from the downward expansion wedge above $68,300. This pattern, which has been in effect since early March, indicates that the eclipse could rise 22 percent. While this is unlikely, BTC could make a new high above $73,800.

Read more: Half a story of Bitcoin: Everything you need to know

For the same, the factors of compounding and interest rate reduction mentioned above must occur, and only raising more than $70,000 will ensure this drastic effect.

However, if Bitcoin price fails to break even $65,000, it is likely to break through this barrier and consolidate above $57,040. This could devalue the bullish thesis by delaying BTC's rally into early or mid-October.