What will happen to the price of Bitcoin if oil reaches $180 per barrel?
Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed US equities and gold since the February 28 US and Israeli attacks on Iran, underscoring its strength amid the biggest geopolitical shocks of the year.
However, BTC's rally could face a serious challenge if oil prices rise to $180 a barrel, a scenario some Saudi Arabian officials now see as plausible if Middle East supply disruptions persist beyond April.
Main Receptors:
US headline inflation could rise to 5% if the oil supply shock continues, reducing the chances of a slowdown in 2026.
Such macro headwinds threaten to send Bitcoin's price towards $51,000 in the coming months.
A rise in oil could double US inflation and hurt Bitcoin
As of Friday, Brent crude was trading around $105 a barrel, up roughly 50% since the start of the U.S.-Israeli-Iran war.
Oil shipments on Iran's Hormuz coast fell to 9.71 million barrels per day from 25.13 million barrels per day in February, according to Kepler data.
Energy data tracker Vortexa predicts a decline to 7.5 million barrels per day, the extent of the Middle East supply shock and why experts expect oil to rise another 70%.
In the year By 2023, a US Federal Reserve study found that every 10% increase in crude prices could add 0.35–0.40 percentage points to the US CPI.
By this measure, an extended oil rally could lift inflation by 2.5-2.8 points, enough to lift CPI above its current level of 2.4% and above the Fed's 2% target.
Markets are adjusting to this risk.
Expectations of policy easing have turned more hawkish, with markets not expecting a second rate cut in 2026 and the odds of the first tapering now increasing to October 2027.
Higher rates raise the cost of borrowing, tighten liquidity, and risk investors like Bitcoin and stocks.
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Any signs of calm in the conflict could quickly dampen oil's rally.
Historically, such spikes are short-lived, with Bitcoin gaining strength as prices gradually stabilize and market fears fade.
An oil shock raises the chances of Bitcoin hitting $51,000
$180 oil warning Bitcoin growth appears to be showing signs of exhaustion.
BTC price is down 9.50% from the area high of $76,000, trading at $70,000 since Thursday. The correction is drawn in a bearish flag pattern with a lower target measured at $51,000–$52,000.
Bitcoin's pullback coincides with the STRC-led BTC buy stop by Michael Saylor's strategy.
The firm did not buy Bitcoin this week, after buying 22,337 BTC in the week ending March 15 and 17,994 BTC in the week before that.
This is important because Strategy has recently been taking supply at a rate equivalent to several weeks of global mineral production. Just as macro concerns are building, his absence removes a major source of interest.
Coinbase premium has also turned negative, softening U.S. demand amid continued oil supply shocks.
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