What’s Next for Crypto Prices?

Things are getting quiet – really quiet – which has raised concerns that this is a bull market for the still very volatile crypto ecosystem. Although this answer depends on the performance of Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin prices, historical data and recent developments can predict the point of the cycle.

In this analysis, BeInCrypto examines critical on-chain metrics that indicate the bull market began two years ago and is 50% complete.

History shows that the cycle is more bearish.

In the year 2022 was a particularly difficult time for the crypto market, which previously had a good growth in 2021. The industry saw major companies such as FTX, Celsius and Three Arrows Capital (3AC) collapse, causing widespread losses and a significant drop in cryptocurrency prices.

In the year On November 21, 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) was down to $15,409, Ethereum (ETH) was down to $1,065, BNB was down to $248.60 and Solana (SOL) was down to $7.70. These levels are the lowest the property has seen in over two years.

In light of this failure, November 2022 seems to mark the bottom of the bear market. In the year A strong price recovery in early 2023 supports the idea that January marked the beginning of a new bull cycle. Historically, crypto market cycles span about three years (1,047 to 1,278 days). Based on this time frame, the current cycle is around 640 days, indicating that the bull market is halfway there.

In particular, the Bitcoin halving that drove the price increase happened earlier this year. Interestingly, Bitcoin hit new all-time highs even before the halving, largely thanks to spot ETFs. Despite recent corrections and periods of consolidation, on-chain metrics suggest that BTC has yet to reach the peak of this cycle. This gives room for further growth as the bull market progresses.

As seen above, the post-half rally begins in the fourth quarter (Q4) of each half year. So, if we go by that iteration, a big change could start around October. Interestingly, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Jum seems to agree with the sentiment.

“The last Bitcoin half-cycle bull rally started in Q4. Whales won't let Q4 be boring with flat YOY performance,” Yang Ju highlighted on X.

Bitcoin, ETH and Altcoin prices still have room to grow.

Historically, the value of Bitcoin has at least doubled every half year. In the year BTC price increased by 2.52x in 2012, 2.26x in 2016, and 4.05x jump in 2020. At the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin was trading at around $42,208. Even after reaching $73,750 in March, the data suggests that the bull cycle is far from over.

To match the performances of the previous half, Bitcoin price should increase further, targeting between $80,000 and $85,000 before this cycle top. Historical trends point to room for further growth in 2024.

Now, onto other things – starting with ETH. In the year During the 2021 bull run, the second most valuable cryptocurrency gave BTC a run for its money, the longer the better.

Although the spot Ethereum ETF was accepted, ETH did not reflect its performance three years ago. On June 20, the dominance of Ethereum was 18.80%. So far, it has dropped to 15%, which indicates that the altcoin is yet to repeat its amazing 2021 run.

Read more: Half a story of Bitcoin: Everything you need to know

On the other hand, the dominance of Bitcoin is more than 57%. Additionally, ETH's underperformance is attributed to the lag of the altcoin season in this cycle.

It's worth noting that the cryptocurrency's rally was one of the main reasons many other altcoins moved to impressive highs in the past. But recently, BNB seems to be the only top altcoin from the last cycle that surpassed the previous high.

Meme coins, celebrities have tasted a bull market

While altcoins continue to underperform, two notable events suggest this bull market may be half over. The first is the amazing returns from meme coins. In the past, several meme coins on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain have produced many millionaires out of the blue.

At the moment, the blockchains that offer such appear to be Solana and, most recently, Justin Sun-led Tron. Second on the list is celebrity involvement. In the year In 2021, stars like Logan Paul, Paris Hilton, and Snoop Dogg, among others, bought into the NFT hype.

Meanwhile, the NFT craze seems to be over, but celebrities have also participated in the market. People like Andrew Tate and Iggy Azalea have started the DADDY and MOTHER meme coins, respectively.

Another metric to consider in gauging the crypto bull market is retail investor interest. While retail investors' interest is waning, it suggests that the bull market is ongoing but has not peaked.

Google Trends data shows that searches for “cryptocurrency” will peak in 2021, scoring a perfect 100. But searches have been consistently low this year, reflecting a slowdown in retail activity.

A bull market usually sees a spike when retail investors drive the demand. The current dip in demand suggests that this cycle has not yet peaked. The lack of widespread retail FOMO shows more potential as the cycle matures.

Long-term data shows that the uptrend may resume

Additionally, the long-term holder realized profit/loss ratio provided by Glassnode comes into play. As the name suggests, this metric tracks the behavior of long-term holders, telling you whether they are booking profits or sustaining losses.

As of this writing, this measure has declined from its peak in March, indicating that shareholders have eased dividend-gathering activity. This fall is similar to the 2021 cycle when the price of Bitcoin dropped before starting another uptrend.

Read more: 7 must-have cryptocurrencies for your portfolio before the next bull run

Therefore, if past performances influence future trends, BTC, as well as other cryptos, could reach new highs. The on-chain analytics platform also agrees with its report on August 20.

“Notably, at the March 2024 ATH, this measure reached the same highs as previous market highs. In both In the 2013 and 2021 cycles, the benchmark declined to similar levels before resuming price increases,” Glassnode explained.

In conclusion, while some investors are skeptical of the current market conditions, several indicators indicate that this is still a bull market despite recent volatility. The analysis suggests that prices may continue to rise, pushing Bitcoin, Ethereum and other altcoins to new highs and fueling further momentum in this cycle.

However, caution is still advised. High volatility and occasional falls can lead to sudden price changes. If confirmed losses continue and dominate the market, the current cycle may turn into a bear phase.