Which Altcoins Will Survive 2026 and Which Will Not?

Cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Pop warns that most altcoins will not survive 2026, citing structural underperformance, increased competition and flawed economics.

His view comes amid growing uncertainty about the state of the crypto market in 2026. While many analysts predict an extended recession, others argue that conditions could be ripe for a renewed bull market.

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The 2026 Altcoin Shakeout: Why Many Tokens May Fail While Few Survive

In a recent YouTube video, Van de Pop said that the assumption that “altcoins will always return” is dangerous. They argue that last year was a rough recovery, with most altcoins doing worse than 2022.

“It was a very difficult bear market year as most altcoins dropped almost 90% and I think most of them will never come back,” he said.

The analyst listed several reasons why many altcoins may face challenges in the coming year. One of the main reasons cited is poor tokonomics and poor financial management. According to Van de Pop

“The number one reason most altcoins don't survive is because the founders screw up their finances, screw up their tokenonomics, or have a major crash that they can't recover from.”

The prolonged market downturn itself is another critical factor. The analyst described it as the “longest bear market” in crypto history. Van de Pop likens the current level to the aftermath of the dot-com bubble burst.

“If you're looking at the crash that happened after the dotcom bubble, almost all of the projects or companies that were building on the Internet during that time didn't come back,” he said.

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Rapid technological advances are also shaping the competitive landscape. Citing earlier generation projects as an example, the analyst explained that newer, more efficient solutions have overtaken many altcoins developed in previous cycles.

In some cases, the original problems these projects were intended to solve no longer exist, reducing their relevance and long-term viability. Institutional adoption, while broadly positive for the crypto industry, can hurt smaller projects even more.

“If we use the example of Neo in 2017, now there are better solutions for the way you want to solve the problem … When you come to the institutions, the impact of that will be positive for the whole industry, but it will be negative for small groups that cannot fight it,” he said.

While warning that most altcoins will not perform well in 2026, the analyst emphasized that some are positioned to survive. According to his framework, altcoins are the most resilient ones that show the relationship between price performance and underlying growth.

He argued that projects with increasing on-chain activity, total value locked (TVL), high transaction volume and increasing fees represent potential long-term survivors despite weak or declining prices. He highlighted Arbitrum, Ave and NEAR as examples.

“The current price of Arbitrum is at a new low compared to that period. The fundamental growth of the ecosystem is almost 200% growth in the same period. This is where you can find good altcoins,” van de Pop said.

This view is consistent with broader industry views that the broader altcoin era is unlikely to materialize, with only a handful of assets positioned to benefit as the market matures.

Therefore, the divide between successful and unsuccessful altcoins is expected to widen in the next cycle. While this shakeout may cause short-term losses, it can ultimately strengthen the broader crypto ecosystem by focusing on more resilient and fundamentally sound projects.