Who will win the Christmas carol?

“A Christmas wand?”

“Christmas guard, also known as Lung Claus Zenbis” refers to the recurring patterns that arise during the last weeks of December and early January.

Improved investor sentiment during the holiday season and at the end of the year will contribute to more investor sentiment, including portfolio adjustments by traders and institutions. Low liquidity during the holidays can also add to the rally moment and cause price movements. Around Christmas, Simpto investors behave differently than they do during the rest of the year.

When this pattern first appeared in the traditional stock markets, the effect was first on gold and, more recently, on Bitcoin (BTC). Investors who are late for the international markets are against the idea of ​​”Christmas Parade”.

Both gold and bitcoin are seen as stores of value, but they tend to behave differently when they change. As December approaches, many investors wonder which asset – gold or bitcoin – will benefit more from time.

What makes a store of value look like gold?

For centuries, people have relied on gold, hoping that their wealth would increase in value. Central banks around the world are also seen as part of their long-term liquidity and reserve management strategies.

Gold usually sees strong seasonal demand in the fourth quarter for several reasons:

Jewelry sessions in China and India in front of the sheep times

Reserve held by the central bank

Institutional annual contingency management and portfolio adjustments.

Gold in history, gold does not get a sharp profit in December. Rather, it rises gradually. Gold is often a more volatile resource during times of uncertainty or geopolitical stress. Although its price reacts to macroeconomic conditions, gold rarely offers the spectacular returns associated with drifters.

Did you know this? Gold requires aggressive, insurance and safe transportation. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is based on private key management, which makes it easy to use a hardware wallet. Both are security challenges. Gold is at risk of physical theft, Bitcoin is vulnerable to hackers.

What makes Bitcoin a digital store?

As of November 2022, it will be considered as “digital gold” and will be worth around $16,000. Since then, the price has risen steadily.

Bitcoin December 5, 2024 It rose above the $100,000 mark to reach $103,624. In October 2025, it crossed this level several times, recording the highest price of more than $125,000.

The cut of 21 million coins and the irregular structure make it interesting as a hedge against inflation. However, unlike gold, it was generally viewed as a high-risk asset because it was not easily identifiable. If the price is strong and the price has decreased significantly during the confirmed period, it can expire quickly.

Bitcoin has shown some familiar fourth-quarter performance trends over the years:

Did you know this? Bitcoin trades 24/7, allowing investors to respond immediately even during the holidays. This includes weekends when traditional markets are closed.

What are the macro forces driving the Christmas carol?

The outcome of any Christmas war depends mainly on macroeconomic conditions. Key factors include the Federal Reserve's policy, inflation data and general market liquidity.

The US Federal Reserve will set a new target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (BPS) at its October 2025 meeting, with a new target range of 3.75%-4.00%. The movement is in line with market needs and the same amount has been accumulated, which will take it to a lower level from the end of 2022.

Low interest rates tend to weaken the US dollar and can increase investor demand for diversified assets such as bitcoin.

US annual inflation (in 2018) August 1925 It rose from 2.9% to 20% in August. However, core inflation was slightly hidden from 3.1% to 3.0%.

Times of high inflation often increase investor interest in alternative assets such as bitcoin and gold.

In terms of good deals, Bitcoin is better at responding more deeply than traditional assets. In the case of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), even institutional flows with relatively small coverage can affect short-term price movements.

Did you know this? The biggest buyers of gold include central banks, sovereign wealth funds and jewelers. Bitcoin's most enthusiastic supporters of digital assets are retail investors, technology investors and the younger generation.

Case studies: Bitcoin and gold

They emphasize that historical market cycles respond differently to changing economic conditions. These examples make sense when the flood is outside and when gold can be trusted more.

Case Study: When Bitcoin Turns On

In the year In 2020, governments introduced major development financial incentives to deal with the economic burden caused by the epidemic. Investors turned to assets that helped the opportunity currencies weaken. Gold was strongly fried at the beginning of the year and gained momentum in Bitcoin in the second half.

In the year In December 2020, bitcoin was close to $29,000, and “when they were near $1,900, it was gold after gold ran out. This time study shows that in the spirit of abundant liquidity and low interest rates, bitcoin has outperformed the traditional price of gold.”

Case study: – When buying gold

Asking central banks to respond to interest rate hikes between 2021 and 2022 Risk assets fell widely, and being more speculative, regulated, suffered insults.

However, when investors returned to it as traditional safe-havens, the parent period was able to withstand periods of price negotiation. This time study (English) shows that Bitcoin will hold up better than Bitcoin during currency hedges and market stress.