Why Bitcoin (BTC) Price May Collapse in July

Bitcoin (BTC) has had a strong start to the new month after falling below expectations for a large part of the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. Trading at $63,255, the price has increased by 3.11% in the last 24 hours.

Investors will be interested to know if the coin will continue its run or get better. This analysis confirms that unless something unexpected happens, there will likely be a higher price by the end of July.

Bitcoin miners reduce the volume of sales

Miners have been one of the reasons why Bitcoin prices have stagnated over the past few months. In April, Bitcoin miners, who are responsible for verifying transactions on the network, saw their reward cut in half.

After that, revenue declined as they found it challenging to keep up with operating expenses. As a result, they sold some BTC. According to CryptoQuant, mining-to-exchange transactions jumped until June 8.

Miner-to-exchange transactions scale is measured by the number of Bitcoin coins sent from miners' reserves to exchanges. When it goes up, BTC goes down. However, a significant decline provides stability to the price of Bitcoin – either it increases or the value moves sideways.

Read more: 5 platforms to buy Bitcoin mining stocks after the 2024 halving

There was speculation that the benchmark might jump again, but that didn't happen, as miners seemed to be done with the spread. As shown above, only 129 BTC associated with the miners were sent to the exchanges.

This number is a very low figure compared to June 8 when it was 1,279 BTC. If the value continues to decline, Bitcoin may keep its head above $60,000 until July. At its most aggressive, the price could retest between $65,000 and $67,000.

Historical trends raise eyebrows

Another indicator that favors price increases is Bitcoin's Delta Gradient. The Delta Gradient model evaluates the rate of change in price relative to capital inflows into Bitcoin.

It also takes into account the BTC value of the position and the realized value. The difference between these values ​​is what gives the delta gradient.

If the scale is positive, it means investors should expect growth over a period of time. On the other hand, a negative gradient indicates that the return is likely to be negative.

At press time, using Glassnode data, the 28-day Bitcoin Delta Gradient is -1.62. Normally this is supposed to drive a downtrend for BTC. However, this may not be the case as the reading is an improvement from a few days ago when it was -2.90.

If the above gauge reading keeps growing, so will BTC. Furthermore, a jump into positive territory can confirm Bitcoin's price increase.

Meanwhile, social media analysts have given their opinion on this month's performance. For example, Ali Martinez wrote on X that BTC could rise significantly in July.

Referring to the previous return of the coin in the seventh month:

“Historically, when Bitcoin experiences a negative June, it bounces back strongly in July. In fact, BTC has shown an average return of 7.98% this month and an average return of 9.60%.”

BTC Price Prediction: $67,000 or Nothing?

According to the daily BTC/USD chart, the coin formed a cup and handle pattern. This pattern occurs when the price forms a circular bottom and then tests new lows to form the handle.

The cup and bear pattern acts as a bullish signal, indicating that a bullish breakout may have the strength to continue moving north. Looking at the Fibonacci retracement to identify support and resistance levels, BTC could hit $64,966 if the pullback continues.

For more perspective, the coin's price could reach $67,241 before the end of the month. In addition, the relative strength indicator (RSI) begins to move upwards. An increase in the RSI means that Bitcoin is leaving bearish regimes.

However, to confirm the price prediction, the RSI reading must cross the neutral zone of 50.00. If this happens, BTC will continue to rise and may exceed $64,000 in a few days.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Failure to strengthen the momentum will invalidate the forecast. Traders should monitor the activities of institutions that hold bitcoins.

Recently, Spot On Chain revealed that the US and German governments are selling BTC again. If this is delayed, the price of Bitcoin could lose its hold of $60,000 and drop to $59,795. The price can drop to $56,599 in a very low-end configuration.