Why Bitcoin Could Fall Below $80,000?
Since early 2025, Bitcoin has not closed a monthly candle below $80,000. This level has provided critical and strong support so far.
However, signals from the Coinbase Premium Index are threatening this support. Despite the downgrade, analysts still see reasons for optimism.
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The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has reached its lowest level since February
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the Bitcoin price differential between Coinbase (US) and Binance (Global). It often reflects the buying interest of US institutional investors.
When the index turns negative, it indicates strong selling pressure from the US. This pressure will greatly contribute to the decrease in the price of BTC.
As of December 30, the index stands at -0.14, according to CryptoQuant data. This marks the lowest level since February.
The index remained negative for 16 consecutive days in December. During this period, Bitcoin failed to close the weekly candle above $90,000.
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As a result, analysts believe that Bitcoin may not be down yet. The selling pressure by US investors shows no sign of abating.
“The biggest indicator of the bottom of the area will be when the Coinbase premium returns,” said investor Johnny.
A similarly sharp decline in February saw Bitcoin break the $80,000 support level. After that, the price quickly recovered.
Therefore, the current deep negative reading may point to a similar situation.
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Additionally, December saw negative ETF inflows for the second consecutive month. However, in December, EFF inflows decreased significantly compared to the previous month.
The February and early March 2025 patterns show a similar phenomenon. This may indicate selling by US investors, but at a weaker pace than before.
This situation creates the conditions to recover Bitcoin. A rebound may occur even if the price temporarily breaks below $80,000.
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Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) have eased the selling pressure. Their supply has started to increase again.
CryptoQuant data shows that LTH supply moved from circulation to storage in late December. It has moved into a long-term hold position around 10,700 BTC. This marks the first positive sign from LTHs since they stopped selling in July.
“For now, this is a very modest shift, but it's not trivial…Historically, such shifts often precede consolidation phases or even recoveries, according to broader trends.” Analyst Darkfost commented.
In conclusion, the Coinbase Premium Index remains at a low level, and ETF outflows continue. However, signs of long-term owners offer some hope. BTC may break below $80,000 if selling pressure continues. Still, a rebound can come at any time.
