Why Bitcoin Won’t Go Below 30K Again: Willy Woo

Could Bitcoin (BTC) still be due for a major price correction? Probably according to famous Bitcoin price guru Willie Woo.

An on-chain analyst used a blockchain data map to determine that the average purchase price for bitcoin investors will never drop below $30,000 again.

Bitcoin's new floor is $30K.

In a post to X on Tuesday, Woo shared a contour chart — the “Bitcoin Cost Basis Density Map” — that tracks the supply of bitcoin based on the price long-term investors have paid for their coins.

The line chart shows that the thick gray band reflects the price at which the majority of Bitcoin's supply moved at the time, indicating “strong consensus value” according to Wow.

Since Bitcoin's inception, the analyst band has acted as an infallible price support that has been retested with three exceptions. These conditions include strong consensus price bands, an exit from a bear market, and another Bitcoin “halving” just around the corner.

Here's where Bitcoin is today: not only has the asset risen by 130% since the FTX crash last year, but the next halving — a cyclical event that cuts the amount of new BTC production in half — is scheduled for April 2024.

Woo's chart shows that such bands have formed 8 times in Bitcoin's history in key situations and have always supported Bitcoin's price during such times.

“Bitcoin is far from a commodity market,” Woo wrote. “What we're looking at in 13 years of this chart is the widespread adoption of BTC.”

“This is just an exit with a spot ETF,” he added.

But not everyone is convinced by Woo's hypothesis: Price analyst TXMC said Woo made a similar prediction in 2021 that bitcoin would never drop below $40,000 again, which failed the following year.

“It's just 20% back from the current level at another floor price,” he said. “We really go in cycles.”

Plan B prediction

Another prominent analyst, Plan B, made a similar prediction on Sunday, asserting that Bitcoin's price will remain between $32,000 and $64,000 before declining in the next half.

The analyst based his estimate on his signature stock-to-flow model – a rough model of Bitcoin price appreciation based on scarcity.

However, Plan B forecasts have also missed the mark in the past. In the year By 2021, the analyst expects BTC to reach $135,000 in December

He also predicted in February that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2023. As of November, the property is for sale for only $36,000.