Why Bitcoin’s $72K Wall Marks Are the Most Painful Phase of the Cycle So Far

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break the $72,000 resistance on Tuesday, according to onchain data, BTC was entering a very “difficult” cyclical phase.

Main Receptors:

Bitcoin price remains range-bound after another rejection at $72,000.

An increase in supply at a loss suggests that a very “psychologically challenging” bear market phase is here.

Bitcoin needs to break the resistance at $72,000 to have a chance to end the downtrend.

Bitcoin is facing a very frustrating phase of the cycle

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, Bitcoin is entering a period of “higher uncertainty” where market participants are more hesitant than confident.

“The combination of 3 key onchain metrics indicates that the market may be going through one of the most challenging phases of the cycle,” MorenoDV_ said.

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These are the Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Indicator, a metric that tracks investor sentiment in the BTC market, which indicates the level of bear market consolidation following significant declines from cyclical highs.

According to the analyst, this is “historically a frustrating season for both bulls and bears.”

The apparent interest reinforces this image. The chart above shows that the surge in Bitcoin demand seen in mid-February was short-lived, with “demand quickly moving back into negative territory,” MorenoDV_ said.

The lack of sustained buying pressure indicates that market participants remain cautious and unwilling to aggressively rally at current levels.

Moreover, the long-term SOPR is now below the 1 key threshold, which is a sign that even long-term investors are realizing losses.

“Historically, this level emerges during the later stages of bear markets, when prolonged uncertainty begins to erode even the strongest confidence.”

Meanwhile, the supply of Bitcoin in bankruptcy is increasing again, currently approaching the 40-45% range, compared to 22% in mid-January.

Historically, such levels have been seen during deep corrections, as seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022, indicating rising market tension and capital among sellers.

The chart below shows that the bottom of the macro market has historically been charted when the supply of losses increased by more than 50%.

CryptoQuant analyst Woominyu said: “The supply in losses is increasing again, which is increasing the market tension.”

“If historical patterns repeat, the current level may represent the first phase of a bear market, not the final bottom.”

According to Cointelegraph, analysts are predicting that Bitcoin will extend its bear market by the end of 2026, with some predicting that it will reach as high as $30,000.

Bitcoin's key resistance remains at $72,000

Bitcoin has made several failed attempts to break above $72,000.

“Another decline at the high range for the time being,” analyst Daan Crypto Trades said in an X post on Tuesday, referring to Bitcoin's pause below $72,000 on Tuesday, adding:

“It's still in the range and markets are generally not very decisive.”

The accompanying chart shows that $72,000 is a key level to watch on BTC's four-hour chart. Violating this level can attract new buyers if the price is outside the range.

A clean break above $72,000 “could create strong bullishness and pave the way to higher levels,” said fellow analyst BenCripz.

“However, if this resistance resumes, BTC may rotate to the $69K mid-range or revisit the $66K support zone.”