Will $1 be low?

XRP (XRP) has retreated nearly 50% from its multi-year high of $3.66 to trade below $2.

Main Receptors:

XRP appeared bearish below $2, with chart technicals pointing towards $1.

A successful test of support at $1.78 could devalue the outlook.

Is XRP high?

The failure of XRP's technical setup to hold above the $2 support level indicates that the altcoin is at risk of a deep correction.

In a Wednesday post on X, Peter Brandt said the presence of a “potential double top” pattern could send XRP lower in the coming weeks or months.

RELATED: XRP Sinks Below $2 Despite $1B ETF Earnings: How Low Can Price Go?

The double top pattern is still in play on the weekly chart (see below) and will be confirmed when XRP closes the week below the neckline at $2.

If the price regains the neckline, the gap could translate into a bear trap, which would cause the bearer to lose value.

“Sure, he might succeed, and if he does, I'll let him go,” said Brandt.

“But now this has boring implications.”

If the price stays below the neckline, the pair may initially decline to $1.65, where the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) currently resides. Less than that, the 200-week SMA around $1.07 provides the last line of defense for XRP.

Analyst XForceGlobal sees the bearish transition as corrective action into wave 3, which is part of a “5-wave push after the triangle break” as shown in the chart below.

According to the Elliott Wave analyst, XRP may go down to around $1.20-$1.35, in the final return, “it will determine everything that is needed for the next level of expansion,” the analyst added.

According to Cointelegraph, the possibility of the XRP/USDT pair dropping to the October 10 low of $1.25 has increased once the price of XRP breaks below its 20-day moving average of $2.

XRP's 2018 fractal setup echoes the $1 target

XRP's current structure closely mirrors the composition that triggered the 2018 bear market crash.

As the chart below indicates, the $2 region is similar to the last support line that XRP lost before its 70% crash seven years ago.

As prices struggle below $2 and sellers take control, XRP has the potential to drop 70% to $0.60 before recovering to stabilize around $1, echoing the pullback that followed a similar technical setup in 2018.

XRP is currently experiencing renewed bearish pressure, with weakening initial moves threatening to send the XRP/USD pair to $1 and an onchain position.

All hope is not lost for XRP bulls

Despite the sentiment, XRP is still moving above a key support level, which bulls should hold to prevent further declines.

The Glassnode UTXO Price Spread (URPD) – a measure that shows the average price at which SOL holders bought their coins – is the next significant support at $1.78, with approximately 1.85 billion XRP already available.

“XRP should hold this support line,” said Mikybull Crypto, referring to the $1.70-$1.80 interest zone in the monthly timeframe.

“Otherwise it will be a massacre.”

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