Will Bitcoin Continue to Fall Due to ETFs?

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, prompting speculation about how markets might react in the coming weeks.

As of January 12, Bitcoin (BTC) soared to $49,000 before falling to over $43,000 in the hours following the announcement. However, with Bitcoin set to halve in April, there is little agreement on what will happen next.

We asked some Cointelegraph staff and authors for their thoughts on some of the analysis. (Remember that the last time we asked for predictions, some were down to five figures – so unless you're looking for tips on how to lose money, don't consider this investment advice.)

Cointelegraph: ETF approvals are behind us. Will we see this as “buy the news” or “sell the news” as January ends?

Tom Blackstone Correspondent:

The price of Bitcoin broke the resistance until December 31, ending at $42,265. That's $2,265 in the upper range of what I thought it would be a few months ago, so my prediction is a little off.

Related: Here's Why Bitcoin Won't Crash 30% After ETF Decision

History shows that half-years show much higher price increases compared to the years before them, so I expect Bitcoin to be much higher by the end of this year, even if a June rally is too soon. By the end of the year, I expect it to reach a new all-time high. I don't think ETF news will have much impact in the first two months or so after the decision is made.

CT: Where do you think the price of Bitcoin will stand on June 30?

TB: I think it will be over $47,000.

Lucas Kiely, Chief Investment Officer at YildApps:

We see some “sell-the-news” action, but only from some short-term traders. HODLers won't sell – and certainly not before Bitcoin's halving, which has been the reason for the massive rally every time in the past. The number of long-term owners sits at around 76%, which is higher than anywhere else in history.

We'll see a slight rebound, but nothing to write home about. It may take a while to get over the $50,000 limit. But in June, half of it will be out of the way, and the price should be higher. The amount will depend on many factors, of course, not the least of which is the macroeconomic background. We know that it usually takes time for a halving to impact prices, so we may need to be a little more patient in order to maintain a new all-time high.

BTC price prediction for June 30? By the end of June, I expect Bitcoin to sit somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000.

Christos Makridis, Associate Research Professor at ASU and Founder/CEO of Dynamic AI:

The Bitcoin ETF is a big step forward for the value of digital assets – beyond BTC – this year. In addition to growing institutional recognition and adoption of digital assets, it is likely to add to economic and political instability. At least historically, there is a strong negative correlation between uncertainty and the price of both BTC and ETH, which is likely to increase during the 2024 election cycle. The current price trend for digital assets is likely to continue and people will look to them. Uncertainty and an active central bank and a paradise among the Federal decision-makers, which will further stimulate their appreciation in prices.

BTC price in June. 30? I wouldn't be surprised if BTC crosses $50,000.

Ray Salmond Marketing Manager:

Bitcoin's long-term price action may affect the volume and consistency of inflows into ETFs and reports at the end of the first and second quarters.

It will be interesting to see how institutions position their portfolio allocations to BTC and what consumer and retail products emerge in the coming year. In the short term, attention may have returned to the April halving of Bitcoin, and the impact this has had on prices historically.

Personally, I'm content to see Bitcoin consolidate in the $50,000 to $56,000 price range over the next two or so months. Finally flipping $58,000 to back it up and getting more leverage to cut it in half would be great.

BTC price in June. 30? Between $55,500 and $69,420, but there are so many factors that can happen.

Daniel Servade, founder and CEO of Celix:

It is inevitable that Bitcoin will rise above $100,000, driven by retail investors. This is a critical moment for Bitcoin as it not only simplifies the investment process by eliminating the need for direct interactions with cryptocurrency exchanges, but also marks a major leap forward in mainstream acceptance and regulatory transparency in the United States. (Ethereum, on the other hand, may not mirror Bitcoin's rise.)

BTC price in June. 30? 140,000 dollars

Rudy Takala, Editor:

Bitcoin's maximum volume was set at $49,000 when the ETF launched. Once we establish a post-ETF bottom, I suspect we'll see it trade in an increasingly narrow range until it's ready to exit – perhaps making it safe to short the high end of that range until that happens. That will be especially true if market mania continues to shift to Ethereum.

Related: What Will Bitcoin Do If the Justice Department Takes Aim at Binance?

In the year In 2020 – the last half year – the price of Bitcoin increased by 500%, and in 2021 it doubled. This year, the same design will put the year-end price above $200,000. That seems absurd right now, and the difference in market capitalization compared to 2020 will be equally meaningless. But it looks bad for the year.

BTC price in June. 30? Over $47,000.

JW Verret, Associate Professor at George Mason Law School

I'm not selling the news because the only logical way to invest in Bitcoin is to think five to 20 years out. On that horizon, the “to the moon” meme makes sense. In the short term, I don't have real-world usage numbers to work with because there isn't much. Short-term price forecasts are estimates of how much you want to jump with me in the next six months without any new information.

Long term, I believe the US dollar will not have a future, AI will prefer decentralized money and remote work will lend itself to crypto incentives. Bitcoin is now the best bet on this future.

BTC price in June. 30? If you had to guess, I'd say the price action would continue past the $50,000 mark, minus the regular sales during the tax season.

This article is not intended for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.