Will Cardano Chang Hard Fork Delay Sell ADA Holders?

For the first time since August 2, the price of Cardano (ADA) has returned to $0.38, resulting in an 18% increase in the past seven days.

Interestingly, this price increase coincides with a public announcement that may prompt ADA holders to sell some of their holdings.

Cardano holders are ready to “sell the news”.

On Friday, August 23, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson announced that the long-awaited Chang hard fork on X has been postponed. According to Hoskinson, the development was necessary because some Tier-1 centralized exchanges, including Binance, are not ready to upgrade.

“It looks like the Binces and a few others need more time to fix their house, so the rocket is waiting on the floor for another time when the weather is better. Next Chang's Hard Fork window, September 1,” Hoskinson added.

Following the announcement, IntoTheBlock data shows that ADA holders appear poised to sell. BeInCrypto found it after analyzing order books on top 20 exchanges.

As shown below, market participants are ready to bid (buy) about 172 million coins. Meanwhile, through the division, some participants want to sell more than 200 million. At the current value of the token, this would be approximately $80 million. If the sale goes through, ADA prices may drop for a short period of time.

Read more: Who is Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson?

Recent price increases have affected Cardano's market value to real value (MVRV) ratio, a measure that provides insights into shareholder profitability, buying behavior and market tops or bottoms. In the year On August 20, ADA's 30-day MVRV ratio stood at 0.32%, indicating that the average holder is in losses.

However, the year-to-date ratio has risen to 10.36%, which means that all holders would be profitable if they sold at the current price. While this increase reflects a healthy market, it also puts ADA prices at risk.

Historically, when the MVRV ratio has reached levels between 12.20% and 18.35%, holders have realized a profit, leading to a return in value. If ADA's price closes to $0.40, a recap could occur that could erase some of the recent gains.

However, one anonymous analyst suggested that XForceGlobal ADA may be nearing the bottom.

“Cardano made an 18,000% run in the last bull run, but also made one of the strongest runs during the bear market. Structure looks very similar for a 1-2 order when the $SOL bottom is formed. Wave 3 targets will be around $3,” he said.

ADA Price Forecast: A rise to $0.42 is still possible.

On the daily chart, ADA has broken the crucial support at $0.31 and the descending trendline, indicating strong bullishness. Additionally, the price, which is $0.39 as of press time, is trading above the 20 (blue) and 50 (yellow) exponential moving averages (EMAs).

EMAs track the price trends of cryptocurrencies over time and help predict potential moves. Typically, when the price is above the EMA, it indicates a bearish trend, while the price below the EMA indicates a bearish outlook.

Given these circumstances, the ADA appears to be at its peak. If this trend continues, the cryptocurrency may make a psychological resistance of $0.40 and a target of $0.42. But market participants should be wary of a lingering death cross.

Read more: Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

A death cross occurs when the long EMA crosses above the short, indicating a bearish trend. Conversely, a golden cross is formed when the short EMA crosses above the long EMA.

As you can see, Cardano has not yet come out of the death cross, which bearish pressure can still affect the signal. If the momentum fades and the bears regain control, the ADA price may return to $0.37.