Will Crypto Markets React to GOP Victory?
The US presidential election is just one week away. The odds now suggest that Republican candidate Donald Trump will have a clear victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Most forecasts, including Polymarket polls, indicate that American voters are currently leaning more toward Trump than Kamala. It is unclear how Trump's victory will affect various markets. Crypto traders, especially Ethereum traders, think that the predicted political change could signal a change in the crypto sector. Let's try to understand the situation better. Enter!
Trump's increasing electoral chances
Most prediction platforms, such as Polymarket, The Economist Magazine, Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, predict that Trump will win the US presidential election. The Economist, Silver Bulletin, and FiveThirtyEight report 54%, 53.3%, and 52.9% probability, respectively. RealClearPolitics shows a high probability of winning at 61.3%.
Notably, Trump's chance of winning is rated at 66.1% by Polymarket pundits, which lowers Kamala's chance to 33.9%. Polymarket even suggests that Trump could win outright in all six swing states: Arizona (73%), Georgia (74%), Nevada (64%), Pennsylvania (62%), Wisconsin (58%) and Michigan (53%).
What sets the current forecast apart from past elections is that in 2016 and 2020, most forecasting platforms underestimated Trump's chances.
This time, the overall mood of the US electorate seems clearer than in the past.
The price of Trump Media and Technology Group Corp., owned by Trump, was just $16.16 earlier this month. It now stands at 38.95, which shows a huge increase of 141.02% this month.
Likewise, several Trump-themed meme coins have flourished this month. MAGA, which is known to be inspired by Donald Trump, recorded a monthly increase of about 29.32%.
Current Crypto Rally Trends
Many cryptos do not witness growth in the last 30 days. Except for Bitcoin, USDC, DOGE and TRON, all the other top ten cryptos have declined. In the Meme Coin market, Dogecoin, dogwifhat, Popcat and Cat in the Dog World are the only four coins that have seen growth in the past 30 days.
Interestingly, at the beginning of this month, Altcoin dominance – the dominance of all cryptocurrencies excluding the top ten – was about 10.27%. Now, it remains at 9.26%, which indicates that the Altcoin market has registered a dominance of 10.90% in the last 30 days.
Also read: Crypto Market Today (October 28, 2024): BTC Price at $67k | Dogecoin makes waves,
Ethereum market analysis
On October 1, Ethereum was valued at $2,601.77. It fell to a low of $2,350 on October 3. Between October 4 and 13, the market struggled to recover from its first month's decline. On October 14, he won all the challenges, exceeding the opening price of the month. On October 20, the market peaked at $2,746. Since then, it has fallen about 10.07 percent. With the price hovering around $2,500, the Ethereum market currency is struggling to recover from its recent decline.
In conclusion, while Trump's rise seems influential, traders should remember the dangers of market speculation.
Stay with Coinpedia for more updates!
