Will Polymarket launch a token? Why some traders play on Airdrop

Will Polymarket have an air drop? This year's incredible growth in the crypto prediction market has fueled speculation that the platform could launch its own token and reward its growing pool of users. And some of these users can be seen making moves to improve their chances of scoring big.

To be clear, Polymarket has not yet announced plans for a token, and the company has not responded to a decryption request. But with trading volume rising alongside the US election cycle, Sin ome users Polymarket The community expects to launch the token within the next year, with a subset of traders already trying to develop the potential farm. Air drop.

Traders began to change their behavior in anticipation of trying to artificially increase their trade volume in hopes of earning a higher airdrop reward. Decrypt It was told by the whales watching the behavior.

Due to the fact that the platform does not charge transaction or subscription fees, Polymarket may be looking for a token to fuel its next phase of growth and expansion following a funding round earlier this year. The forecast market added $70 million in May. Series B, With the support of the co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin.

“Polymarket is now running on zero fees and has raised a lot of money,” said an anonymous trader Tyrell They spoke Decrypt. “Usually, that's followed by a token generation event, so investors can get some return on capital.”

Polymarket, built on the Ethereum blockchain network Polygon, has emerged as one of the most successful crypto products this year, attracting nearly $450 million in August trading volume and peaking at over 60,000 monthly active traders. Dune data.

It is even being cited as an important source. Non-crypto-native reporting The United States presidential election, as explained by Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket.

According to Polymarket Well Phantom bettingThe site saw a surge in trading volume following a fresh capital injection from Series B funding, fueling rumors of an airdrop.

“There doesn't seem to be any other way to make money without airdrops,” said Polymarket Well CSP Trading, also known as CrunchWrapoDeLaFuenteHe told him Decrypt.

As a result, the airdrop may be limited in size as the project seeks to raise funds, CSP said. “I guess a token will come and maybe it will be a little drop of air but nothing significant,” CSP said.

Although there is no official confirmation or ETA for the rumored Polymarket token launch, PhantomBits speculates that it could be after the US election as a way to keep new users on the site once this vicious cycle fades.

Polymarket's success was largely accelerated by the 2024 US presidential election. In August, the protocol's monthly volume reached $472.8 million, or a 5,961 percent year-over-year jump from the $7.8 million recorded in August 2023. Dune data.

A similar trend can be seen when looking at Polymarket's monthly new accounts, which were 71,670 created in August 2024. Only 3,916 were created last year — and just 3,700 this March before the election frenzy began.

How do people work?

Many users have noticed that “volume farmers” are trying to artificially increase the total volume of the trade by quickly buying and selling their positions. Farmers believe that this polymarket airdrop will improve their share. Decrypt It was said.

Airdrops are generally distributed to users who meet certain criteria, such as holding a certain amount of relevant tokens, interacting with the platform, or actively participating in the project's community. Tokens received from airdrops can often be traded on exchanges, encouraging users to participate.

It is not difficult to find users who buy large amounts of stocks and then immediately sell them to increase their volume levels. example – We got an account In the 2024 Paralympics, the unlisted country that won the most medals bought 102,711 shares and spent $102.71. Then they sold all these shares in one hour. The shares are sold for the same price, and since Polymarket has no transaction fees, the account loses no capital. Since each share is valued at $1 in volume, the account increased its volume by $205,422.

There are too many accounts with the same behavior. In another example, This account They bought and sold $45.90 worth of shares saying Donald Trump would lose the election, adding $194 to their vote and losing just 9 cents in the process.

This has resulted in low value profiles for active positions such as traders with no profit or loss but high volume trading. June 28 At $19,300 in volume but less than $12 in losses.

Whalers, or individuals who hold large amounts of a particular token, claim that this feature annoys them because the activity page is spammed.

“I doubt any of that volume will be rewarded,” said Phantom Betts, who has the third largest volume on the site. Decrypt. “If there's a time for a farm report, I'll be the one person every time making sure no one awards this kind of thing.”

Edited by Andrew Hayward.