Will Telegram-Linked Toncoin Come Back After Pavel Durov’s Arrest?

Toncoin (Ton) has hit record highs in the past 24 hours, with prices falling amid panic selling after French authorities' shocking arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov.

The price of a ton fell 25% to $5.24 on August 25, a day after the news of Durov's arrest. Durov faces charges related to data privacy and cryptocurrency regulatory violations.

By introducing and integrating Telegram Toncoin into the ecosystem, Durov has made Durov a central part of the coin's narrative and future development. As a result, some Toncoin traders panic sold their holdings.

However, a number of technical and market factors suggest that the TON may begin a significant rebound in the coming weeks.

Ton reflects BNB's sharp recovery

Tons of continued price declines appear to be what BNB (BNB) has done in the days leading up to the sentencing of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao.

BNB fell 13.50% before the judgment of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) on April 30 in the United States. However, once the legal dust settles, the cryptocurrency has increased by 35% since the low to reach almost $700, a strong recovery level. On June 6.

When news breaks of legal troubles, especially those involving key figures like CZ and Durov, it triggers a wave of selling as traders rush to protect their investments.

However, if the initial shock subsides, the market will evaluate the situation rationally.

In the case of BNB, after the dust settled around the CZ ruling, traders realized that while the legal issues were significant, they posed no threat to Binance, the company, or the ecosystem.

This led to panic-sold traders re-entering the market, sending BNB prices soaring by 35%, turning psychological fears into optimism.

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A similar psychological pattern can be played for Toncoin. At first, Durov's arrest could be seen as a major red flag, leading to a steep decline as traders exited the space.

But if the market eventually realizes that the arrest was an isolated event that did not affect the Toncoin ecosystem, traders may see the shock as an opportunity to buy.

Ton came out of the ascending channel support

From a technical perspective, as seen on the daily chart, the tone is moving into a well-defined upward channel area.

The TON/USDT pair broke out of the downtrend of this channel, which has acted as a strong support since its inception earlier this year.

Additionally, Ton's daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading was 37.54 on August 25, which is approaching the oversold 30 level, typically leading to a consolidation or reversal.

The uptrend of the channel currently hovers around $8.50. A move to this level represents a gain of about 50%, matching the bullish momentum indicated by the RSI.

The increase in OI and funding rate shows market confidence

Toncoin's future market data also indicates that confidence is growing among traders. After Durov's arrest, Ton open interest (OI) rose to $303.62 million, the highest since July. Meanwhile, the eight-hourly cash rate rose to a three-month high of 0.0101 percent.

A rising OI suggests more money will flow into the ton futures market, adding interest and speculation to the price direction. The positive volume indicates that traders are increasingly willing to pay a premium to hold long positions in tons.

Moreover, increased volume indicates that traders are betting on a bullish trend, increasing the likelihood of an upward move. If this momentum continues, the ton could result in rapid price appreciation that could lead to the $8.50 target and beyond.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.