With Bitcoin half months away, it might be time to go risk-averse.

More tradition than coincidence, the Christmas season is around the corner again and the market is looking good for another run. Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $35,000 in October, setting another record high for 2023. The year-long rally has been marked by unusual market trends, including excitement over bitcoin spot ETF applications pending with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

If you've been in the crypto space since 2014 like I have, you'll agree that the holiday season comes with a sense of excitement – especially this year. Everyone seems to agree that a bull run is just around the corner, so it's time to keep an eye on the market and explore unique opportunities in more than one area and rethink your marketing approach.

A typical Christmas parade?

Christmas parades bring joy and happiness to many in the crypto scene. Historically, the period brings trading volumes, high market activity and price increases. However, they have resisted contracting in recent years, impacted by unprecedented market volatility. In the year Take the example of a global pandemic in 2020, along with Elon Musk's tweets in 2021 and 2022. Cryptocurrencies have surged for reasons no one can predict.

Related: Over 35K Bitcoin for Christmas? Thanks to Jerome Powell if it happens

Predicting crypto market behavior is similar to predicting the weather. It is a challenging endeavor. While past years have brought December joy, this season is influenced by more complex factors, including regulatory developments and geopolitical tensions.

Don't think ETFs – the Bitcoin halving is ahead.

Investors are bracing themselves for the green light from the SEC for Bitcoin ETFs. The idea here is that an ETF brings institutional investors into crypto.

There is a sense of euphoria brought to the market by the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. Bitcoin's halving event – scheduled to happen in April 2024 – is significant. It is tied to Bitcoin's limited supply of 21 million coins. The majority of cryptocurrency is primarily mined. Bitcoin halving refers to a mechanism whereby the new Bitcoin created in each block is halved by 50%. It happens every 210,000 blocks (or roughly every four years). The halving will ensure that Bitcoin remains a rare and highly sought-after asset.

BITCOIN UP TO $100K FOR YEARS GOLD AND SILVER ARE GOD'S MONEY. BITCOIN PEOPLE $. The bad news is that the stock and bond markets have crashed against gold and silver. Worse news if the world economy falls from 75,000 Birr to 60,000 Dollars in BC. Fake US$ savers. Debt is too high. Mom, Pop and Kids in…

— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) August 14, 2023

The upcoming halving has led to huge predictions for the price of Bitcoin. “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki believes it will reach at least $100,000. Max Keizer predicts a new all-time high of $220,000. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor is – as always – extremely smart, considering his $1 million valuation. The predictions are based on both historical trends and social influences. These and other unusual forces were behind the rally we saw in October.

In my opinion, Bitcoin can comfortably break the all-time high of $69,000, and possibly surpass $169,000.

What happens if the ETF is not approved?

Analysts at financial services firm JPMorgan have warned that legal action may be taken by applicants if the SEC rejects previous ETF applications. A court ruled in Grayscale's favor against the SEC in August, paving the way for Grayscale to convert its Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF. BlackRock, Cathy Wood's ARK Invest and other firms are in the race to win ETF approvals.

I'm sure it gets more boring than this — but sometimes it feels like it's all just a set-up for a giant Gensler semi-funny carpet-pulling.

— Dave Nadig (@DaveNadig) October 30, 2023

Multi-location Bitcoin ETFs could be approved within months. At least for now, it seems inevitable, if not inevitable.

Conflict in the Middle East

Geopolitical tensions and outright wars are a big sign in the world of cryptocurrencies. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas is a stark reminder of how external factors play a role in the market. While the immediate implications may not be clear, historically, investors have sought refuge in alternative assets — including cryptocurrencies — during global crises. So far, the war has not affected the crypto market, but as the situation unfolds, the market can see changes in sentiment and capital flows.

Three days after the war broke out, crypto prices fell and oil prices rose as traders speculated that the war could disrupt production if it spreads to Iran's neighboring countries. The Middle East is home to some of the world's busiest shipping lanes, such as the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Suez Canal. This situation increases the fear of economic disaster if the situation moves to these places.

Related: Bitcoin is evolving into a multi-asset network.

The escalation of the war in the Sinai Peninsula and the Suez region increases the risk of attacks on energy and non-energy trade flowing through the Suez Canal, Economist Intelligence Unit Pat Tucker said in a statement to CNBC. For 15% of world trade, 45% of crude oil, 9% of refined and also 8% of LNG tankers travel that way.

There is no significant impact on the crypto market yet, but if the conflict continues to escalate, it could lead to significant inflation as we head into the Christmas season.

Altcoin season?

As the holiday season approaches, traders eagerly ponder the possibility of an “altcoin” season. Based on historical data (where we've seen the previous alt-seasons occur in December 2017 and January 2021), we can see this run starting in earnest in December. I'm banking on the next alt-season from December (with the help of Bitcoin ETF approvals) and until the Bitcoin halving in April.

Bitcoin is likely to remain relatively flat until the EFF is approved – which means it might not be a bad time to start looking at altcoins. I am particularly interested in niche areas including GameFi and Real World Assets (RWA). (Obligatory disclaimer: I've been wrong in the past, and I may be wrong again.) As the altcoin season begins, tokens with significant utility in these areas may be at the forefront of this race.

A crypto bull run holds promise this Christmas season, but the path remains uncertain. The collapse of the EFA, global tensions and the potential of altcoins all call for vigilant vigilance. We can't always predict the future, but we can prepare for it by staying informed, managing risk, and taking advantage of strategic opportunities. It's not just about celebrating – it's about embracing the future of finance in the exciting world of crypto.

This article is not intended for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.