XRP analysis sees ‘bear trap’ facing June challenge
XRP fell to $1.25 after a massive sell-off in the market on Tuesday, erasing all gains since early February.
Main Receptors:
XRP fell to $1.25 after a broad market sell-off, testing the long-term trend line and the 50-month exponential moving average support area, while traders look at the weakness of support at $1 and below, the optimists see them creating a “bear trap”. June has historically been a weak month for XRP, with traders placing bets below $1.20.
XRP price action teases a “bear trap”.
According to data from TradingView, XRP price opened at $0.33 in June, below the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA).
More importantly, XRP is also directly below the white MACRO trend line, analyst Egrag Crypto he said. In a Monday post on X, he cited a multi-year uptrend line that has supported the price since 2017.
Related: Three key XRP indicators suggest that the ‘explosive price expansion' is continuing
On previous occasions, when XRP opened the month below the 50 EMA during macro draws, as shown in the chart below, “The structure often begins to form a lower zone. Currently, the price is trading below the macro trend line. The price may drop below it before returning as seen in 2020, 2023 and 2024.”
“The market is very tilted,” Egrag Crypto added.
“If XRP retraces the 50 EMA and the macro trend line, this setup could be one of the biggest bear traps of the cycle.”
XRP/USD one month chart. Source: X/Egrag Crypto
For analyst ChartNerd, the target for new local lows is around $0.70-$0.90.
“Many of you will appreciate this beautiful $XRP fractal, which leaves the door open for $0.90/$0.70 XRP,” the trader said. Summary Along with the chart showing the lower drop zone for XRP.
XRP/USD Monthly Chart. Source: X/ChartNerd
Associate analyst Camille Uray he said. $1.26-$1.30 was an important support zone, bulls had to defend against a deeper correction to $0.94-$1.11.
XRP/USD Daily Chart. Source: X/Kamile Uray
According to Cointelegraph reportedXRP may fall to retest the February 6 low of $1.11 and then again. Psychological support for $1 After breaking the $1.27 support.
June is usually a bad month for XRP.
Unfortunately for the bulls, XRP tends to struggle in June. Since 2014, the price has closed in the red eight of the last 12 months, with an average return of about -5%.
According to Cryptorank data, June's losses were more pronounced in years when XRP closed May in the red.
XRP Monthly Returns. Source: Cryptorank
The chart above shows that losses are significantly higher during bear cycles, such as 2018 -23.8% and 2022 -21.5%.
The -34.4% drop in June 2021 was caused by the US Securities and Exchange Commission's lawsuit against Ripple, which has caused significant damage to XRP's price over the years.
If history is anything to go by, XRP's price action may continue to trend lower in June, with a possible recovery starting in July.
