XRP hasn’t seen $1 since 2021 – but that could change in Q4.
The XRP (XRP) market is well positioned for a price rally between now and October, fueled by a potential crash on the charts, whale activity and the end of Ripple's legal battle with the SEC. In doing so, the XRP/USD pair could finally see levels above $1 or higher, levels not seen since 2021.
The price of XRP is approaching a long-awaited technical breakdown
XRP's weekly chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern that has been forming since the beginning of 2018, characterized by a combination of trends that are compressing price action.
The cryptocurrency is trying to resist the upper trend line of the pattern, eyeing a successful breakout to run to the next major resistance level around $1 in the coming months. However, it would need to rise above $0.86—about 45% from current prices—which has historically served as a major hurdle, especially in January-March 2022 and July 2023.
Other technical indicators support this crash view. For example, the weekly chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rebounding from the 50 level, indicating an increase in buying momentum. Moreover, the volume profile indicates increasing trading activity, which is often a precursor to sustained price action.
The stock of XRP will increase the expectations of the so-called upside
On-chain data shows that most of the XRP Well group has been collecting tokens in recent weeks.
For example, XRP's supply of over 1 billion native tokens (black) has grown from 40.27% to 41.44% in 2024. This represents a slight decline in the 100 million-1 billion XRP balance set. (tea)
More recently, other whaling groups have increased their holdings, holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP tokens (brown).
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Stockpiling among these high-value clusters is often a sign of bullishness. Large investors increase their holdings when they anticipate higher prices in the future, increasing their market exposure to facilitate this.
Ripple vs. SEC potential settlement
The long-running legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be nearing its conclusion.
In the year In 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not safe when sold on a digital asset exchange, a partial victory for Ripple. However, XRP is still considered a security when sold to institutional investors by meeting the conditions of the Hawaii test.
Significantly, the recent meeting between Ripple and the SEC has been rescheduled for July 25, 2024.
Analysts believe a favorable settlement could boost XRP's value. Additionally, the potential approval of the XRP-spot ETF should further drive market demand and pricing.
Despite these good signs, some lawyers are cautious.
Former SEC attorney Mark Fagel expressed skepticism about the possibility of a settlement, saying the case could continue through the legal process. However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse is hopeful that a solution can be reached before the end of summer 2024.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business activity involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
