XRP price flashes multiple bearish signs as bulls defend $1.30.
XRP (XRP) is in an eight-month downtrend, with momentum and onchain indicators at levels previously coinciding with macro bottoms.
Data from TradingView shows that the relative strength index (RSI) of the XRP/BTC ratio is at 24, the most oversold level since October 2025.
Such lows in the daily RSI signaled relative market lows, eventually leading to price crashes of 65% in Bitcoin to 345% in XRP as seen at the end of 2024 and 2025.
The chart above shows that the XRP/BTC pair is trading in a long consolidation range, which previously served as a strong launching pad for the ratio.
The last time XRP fell against Bitcoin around this zone was in June 2025. The 61% XRP/BTC ratio has started to rise, along with the 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66.
Other examples shown by the yellow bars on the chart mark macro bottoms for XRP/BTC and reinforce the reliability of this level.
MVRV Z-Score indicates that the price of XRP is declining
XRP's MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level consistent with historical bullish zones and market bottoms.
This shows that most holders are close to breaking even, reducing sales pressure and showing low fatigue. Similar patterns are seen ahead of major rallies in 2021, 2022 and 2024.
The last time the XRP MVRV Z-score was Note that it fell to similar levels in late 2024, converging from the macro market low of $0.30 and before a multi-month rally, the XRP/USD pair surged 500% to a multi-year high above $3.
Meanwhile, the 0.80 MVRV price band, which historically has cycled highs, is currently at $1.14, which coincides with the 15-month low reached on February 6.
These onchain metrics suggest that XRP is undervalued and may continue its sustained recovery, potentially rising to $1.70 or higher.
XRP price should hold above $1.30.
Meanwhile, XRP/USD remains cautiously bullish as long as it holds the $1.25-$1.30 support zone.
“$XRP has been guarding the main support zone between the $1.30-$1.25 levels since early February 26,” trader Chifrati said on XPost on Friday.
“If this zone continues to hold, a short-term breakout to $1.45 cannot be ruled out.”
The importance of this level of support is reinforced by cost-based distribution. The heat map below shows that around this price around 1.73 billion XRP were bought.
Below that, the next line of resistance is the 200-week simple moving average at the $1.15 interest zone.
If XRP/USD falls below this level, it will fall to the measurable bear flag at $0.80 or 41% below the current price.
According to Cointelegraph, a hold of $1.27-$1.30 would be a sign of strength among the bulls and the XRP/USD pair should push to the $1.61 high range.
This article is prepared in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and transactions involve risk; Readers are encouraged to do independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, including forward-looking statements, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on such content.
