XRP price has dropped 30% as on-chain signals point to a potential downside
XRP (XRP) has fallen more than 30% in the past month, under pressure from a broader market decline that has intensified amid geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns.
At the same time, the perceived losses have increased, and the turnover has increased significantly. These on-chain signals suggest growing market anxiety for altcoins. However, as capital metrics grow, the question is whether a potential bottom line is emerging.
XRP struggles between large container transfers and increasing losses.
A large holder movement has added risk to XRP's recent price outlook. According to analyst Darkfost, these holders have transferred more than 31 million XRP to Binance in one day, a selling pressure that can be sold to $ 45 million.
Data on the chain shows that most of these transfers come from large holding groups. Well wallets holding more than 1 million XRP accounted for 14.49 million XRP of the total revenue.
Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million XRP contributed 14.236 million XRP. Smaller groups contributed relatively modest amounts, including 2.9 million XRP from wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 tokens.
The focus of the flow between the large containers is interesting. Exchange flows of this magnitude often raise the risk of selling pressure, as transfers to central platforms may indicate a place where tokens can be liquidated.
However, it should be noted that simple transfers to exchanges do not guarantee that sales will occur. Tokens can remain idle on trading platforms for long periods of time, be used as collateral, or be moved for internal balancing purposes.
Inflows increase the risk of volatility in the near term, not guaranteeing an immediate reduction.
“Overall, this represents a sell-side push of around $45 million in close monitoring. If this sell-side pressure continues, XRP may struggle to recover from the ongoing correction in the near term,” the analyst wrote.
Meanwhile, the moves coincide with growing anxiety among XRP holders. Data from Santiment shows that XRP's realized losses have risen to the highest level since 2022.
Such spikes occur when investors sell below their value, reflecting capital or panic-driven exits during periods of high volatility.
Further reinforcing the cautious outlook, institutional interest appears to be slowing. This shows the declining XRP ETF earnings.
Through strategic expansion and ecosystem development, XRP has struggled to break away from broader market weakness, suggesting that macro factors are weighing more heavily than project-specific progress.
Is XRP Heading Down? Data points on the chain to capital level
Despite significant losses in XRP, Sentiment said such developments serve as an “important price signal”. Historically, these bumps are often seen near market bottoms, the post added.
Sentiment explains that fear increases before the price. Once the selling pressure wears off, even modest new demand can be restored. While this doesn't guarantee a quick rally, it does increase the likelihood of a relief push.
“While the previous weekly net loss of -1.93B occurred 39 months ago, $XRP continued to jump +114% over the next 8 months,” he wrote.
Additionally, BeinCrypto recently revealed that its Market Value to Real Value (MVRV) was last observed in July 2024. This was followed by a price rally.
That said, historical examples should be interpreted with caution. Market structure, liquidity and macroeconomic factors vary from cycle to cycle.
