XRP Price History Shows 28% Bounce Setup – Here’s How
XRP price is trading near $1.38 today, showing signs of stability after weeks of weakness. On the chart, a familiar retracement pattern is beginning to form, similar to previous setups that led to strong rallies. But with chain and derivatives data they are not warranting optimism.
Buying pressure has slowed significantly, long-term holders are pulling back, and leverage risks remain high. This creates a conflict between what the chart suggests and the actual behavior of investors.
The price of XRP builds a known recovery pattern.
Since late January, XRP has been forming a structure that preceded major recoveries.
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Between January 31st and February 11th, the price made lower lows and the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, made higher lows. RSI measures buying and selling strength. When the price weakens, but the RSI improves, it indicates that selling pressure is fading and the momentum is changing.
A similar setup, also on the 12-hour chart, appeared at the end of December 2025.
During that time, XRP showed a similar divergence before retracing its 20-time moving average (EMA) on January 2. Since that pullback, the price has risen more than 28 percent. Now, the structure looks the same again. EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices to show short-term momentum.
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The current divergence shows that the downside is declining. If XRP can regain the $1.50 zone, which is closely aligned with the 20 EMA and prior resistance, it may attract stronger buying interest.
However, the data on the chain does not support the regression theory. At least, not yet.
Exchange flows and the purchase of holders fell
On-chain metrics explain why the recovery signal is struggling.
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One key indicator is the Exchange Net Position Change. This measures how the total amount of XRP held on exchanges has changed over the past 30 days. Simply put, it shows whether exchange rates are increasing or decreasing on a monthly basis. When the number is strongly negative, the balance of exchange is decreasing, usually indicating accumulation or outflow.
On February 8, XRP recorded a net inflow of approximately 107 million tokens. In the year On February 11, the outflow dropped to 16 million tokens.
This impulse buy is 85% failure. This means that investors will no longer devalue currencies at the same rate. However, when the chart turns on a very flashy setting, the interest is severely dampened.
A similar pattern can be seen in the position change of Hodler Net, which tracks wallets holding XRP over 155 days.
On February 1st, long-term holders were adding about 337 million XRP. In the year By February 11, their reserves had fallen to 128 million XRP.
This represents a reduction of more than 60%.
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Simply put, exchange rates are increasing, clearly leading to a weakening of long-term reserves. Investors, who usually favor strong reforms, are waiting cautiously. but why?
Derivatives explain why risk takers hesitate.
In the Binance XRP/USDT perpetual market, medium-term liquidity data shows that short-term positions are dominant. Over the next 30 days, the short-side liquidity exposure is around $148 million and the long-term exposure is around $83 million.
This shows that traders are leaning defensively and are in a risk position. Long-term carriers seem to belong with the masses here.
The short term position tells another story.
In a one-day timeframe, this time on the gate, long liquidators are close to $63.9 million, while shorts are around $51 million. This means that 30% more positions are now exposed on the long side. If the price of XRP falls slightly, driven by a weak and fearful market, long positions may be quickly exited, leading to a deeper decline.
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Long-term owners are aware of this risk, because long liquidity affects previously optimistic prospects. So instead of chasing a weak rebound, they are waiting for confirmation and with medium-term positions, especially shorts. That's why position buying pressure hasn't returned despite bullish variation.
XRP price levels to watch now
With technical optimism clashing with weak optimism, price levels matter now. A key low is set near $1.34.
This zone corresponds to a large, long liquid collection. If XRP closes below $1.34, it could trigger a forced selloff and undermine the rebuild structure. In this case, the price could slide to $1.12. On the upside, $1.50 remains a critical barrier.
This level corresponds to the 20 EMA and psychological resistance. A sustained move above $1.50 could restore confidence and bring back long-term buyers. Without that spark, streaks remain unstable.
Right now, XRP is stuck between improving momentum and falling. The chart says the pressure is easing.
The information on the chain says that interest is gone. And he says the risk of derivatives data remains high. Until XRP holds above $1.34 and returns to $1.50, the recalibration script remains weak.
