XRP price risks a repeat of the 2022 crash as new buyers take big losses
XRP is below the average purchase price of the past year, putting many holders in the red and increasing the risk of a near-term decline.
XRP (XRP) had its best weekly selloff since October 2025, mirroring a 50% crash from 2022.
Main Receptors:
New XRP buyers are in the red.
As of Monday, XRP was trading around $1.60, down more than 20% in the past week and sitting below the price of buyers over the past 12 months.
All XRP in circulation now track an average cost base of around $1.48 above the pooled price. It means that a large share of XRP buyers are in the water recently.
A critical break below $1.48 means the moving average will be underwater, a setup that closely matches the 2022 bear level, which eventually fell 50% to $0.30.
Additionally, XRP's 90-day whale flow network remains negative, with large holders distributing rather than hoarding, according to CryptoQuant data.
With new buyers in the water, continued whaling increases the supply of surpluses and undermines any restoration attempts.
Stablecoin exits add to XRP's low risks
Furthermore, by the end of 2025, stablecoin flows to exchanges were very negative, with a 30-day net flow of approximately $9.6 billion.
Outflows slowed in January, but net inflows remained negative at around $4 billion, according to data compiled by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.
RELATED: Crypto Funds Post Second Week Spending of $1.7B: CoinShares
Fewer stable coins on exchanges will reduce buying pressure, causing the price of XRP to rise above what it has achieved.
XRP price is at risk of crashing by another 50%.
Price charts show that XRP is holding above the 100-2W Exponential Moving Average (100-2W EMA; purple line) at around $1.43, above the total price of $1.48.
But while XRP could still enter the $1.43–$1.48 support band in February, the two-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 38 was historically earlier.
Either way, if the RSI holds around 38 as it has historically, XRP could spend weeks finding its footing before trying to recover further in late Q1 or Q2 2026.
Conversely, a critical breakout below XRP's 100-2W EMA could invalidate a recovery scenario.
If so, XRP risks sliding back to the 200-2W EMA (the blue line) towards $1 in early March, echoing the kind of crash that followed a similar loss of support in 2022.
A fall to $1 would put XRP 36% below its current level.
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