XRP’s 2025 Wins Fail to Deliver $5 Value: 2026 Outlook Uncertain

In the year In 2025, the XRP community celebrated the long-awaited resolution of the SEC lawsuit, the launch of several US-based spot ETFs, and Ripple's partnerships. However, the price of XRP (XRP) peaked at $3.66 before plunging as much as 50% to a low of $1.58 in October, while the desired $5 price target remained elusive.

Main Receptors:

Some very scary events happened for XRP in 2025, but it fell more than 50%, underestimating the market.

No continuous buying and low XRP network activity indicates weak demand.

Technicals point to the risk of further declines in 2026, with analysts warning that it could fall below $1.

XRP price does not reflect major milestones in 2025.

A number of expected bullish events have occurred in 2025 by the XRP Army, but XRP continues to underperform the crypto market.

In March, XRP was listed as a candidate for the United States “Digital Asset Reserve”, which led to a price increase of more than 30%. However, the executive order limited the stock to held assets (no new purchases), with Bitcoin being the preferred stand-alone.

This decline provides symbolic legitimacy but also contributes to an outright buying push going forward.

RELATED: Three data signals that show XRP trader interest are analyzed

On May 8, Ripple Labs settled a years-long lawsuit with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which was the key reason why XRP rose to a seven-year high on July 18. But this momentum quickly faded, and the price dropped 25% to $2.73 in less than two weeks.

In the year The last hope of a 2025 parabolic XRP rally was fueled by the entry of spot ETFs in the United States into institutional interest that began in November.

These investment products recorded 24 consecutive days of inflows, with total inflows rising to $1.06 billion and total assets under management exceeding $1.14 billion.

Such a strong start for XRP ETFs reflected confidence among institutional investors, but it did little to boost trader sentiment regarding XRP's price growth prospects.

The Trump administration will continue to provide regulatory support to the crypto industry through 2026, and Ripple payments should also see further growth through strategic partnerships.

But does XRP have a shot at reaching the $5 mark in the new year?

Can XRP price reach 5-$10 in 2026?

Over the past six months, the number of daily active addresses (unique users) on the XRP Ledger has been muted below 45,000. There were only 38,500 active addresses registered on December 18, a 94% drop from the more than 600,000 addresses registered in March by 2025.

XRP has lost more than 90% of its value in the 12 months since hitting an all-time high in 2018, and that was long before the SEC lawsuit.

Another decline of that magnitude is not out of the question, with the token already down more than 40% from its multi-year high of $3.66. In other words, it will be a tall order for XRP to reach $5 by 2026.

In fact, the technical setup suggests that XRP could be significantly lower than this.

XRP has lost key levels: the psychological level at $2 and the 50-week exponential moving average (SMA) at $1.87, a signal that has already hit cycle highs.

A key area of ​​interest is between the 100-week EMA currently at $1.85 and $1.80 (November 21 low), if this breaks, it will trigger another long run, with the local low of $1.61 being the next area of ​​interest.

Below that, the 200-day EMA of $1.38 may provide some respite, where the bulls may rally again before making another attempt to recover.

Many analysts believe the price of XRP is bullish, but warn of a deep price correction heading into 2026.

According to veteran trader Peter Brandt, the presence of a “potential double top” pattern could push XRP below $1 in the coming weeks or months.

In contrast, other analysts, such as Chad Stingraber, are confident that XRP's price will rise “from $2 to $10” by 2026, citing continued position ETF earnings and more volatile techniques on higher time frames.

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