3 data points chart ETH’s next breakout to $4K.
ETH's recent rally was driven by spot demand and healthy futures market leverage, which could set Ether up for a move towards $4,000.
Ether (ETH) futures and spot markets are sending mixed signals as the futures position builds, but the altcoin price has failed to reach new highs. Data suggests that ETH traders are increasing their exposure, although buying a position ensures recovery.
Main Receptors:
Despite the increase in open interest, Ether's estimated leverage ratio has decreased to 0.67.
Cumulative positional CVD increased along the course, indicating a position-driven demand with force position bias.
Ether open interest is back again, but the price is delayed
Composite open interest (OI) for Ether futures has returned to levels seen before the 38% decline in Q4 2025, with ETH still trading 27% below its October 10, 2025 opening price. This difference indicates that traders are rebuilding exposure.
Supporting this view, Ether's estimated leverage ratio increased to 0.79 on January 2 before falling to 0.67 on January 2. As OI progresses, capacity declines toward healthy posture and low risk of fluid loss.
Meanwhile, the recent rally has been led by rising spot cumulative delta (CVD) rather than futures CVD. This indicates net market buying in the spot market, which is typically associated with more sustained price movements. Reflecting a long/short ratio of around 2.66, there is no sign of traders aggressively entering the market.
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ETH staking flows, and macro signals add tailwinds
Onchain data shows that long-term delinquency is growing. Lookonchain reports that BitMine acquired 110,000 ETH shares worth $340 million on Monday, bringing its three-week total to $3.7 billion. At a yield of 2.8%, this could amount to $95 million in ETH for the company annually.
In terms of market structure, Bitcoin CEO Max Russell noted that the 2000 ETN has achieved historic price discovery. With the index reaching a new high of 2,664, conditions may favor expansion for ETH in the coming weeks.
Echoing that view, crypto investor Jelle Ether said the shift from the weekly major resistance to support “feels pretty big,” leaving the $4,000 high low after last year's crash as a key barrier. Furthermore, ETH “may finally have its moment,” the investor said.
Related: Bank of Italy models Ethereum risks if ETH price falls
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