$3,000 was rejected, but the information on the chain tells a different story

Ethereum has been trading in the $2,930–$2,950 range since January 25, 2026, after a broad pullback from January above $3,400. The lower move reflects recent macro caution and heavy selling in ETFs rather than a breakdown in network fundamentals.
With Bitcoin hovering around $89,000 and risk sentiment mixed, ETH price has moved into a range-bound phase with lower activity.
ETF leverage is based on value, not structure
Short-term pressure came largely from outflows from the spot ETH ETF, which exceeded $600 million between January 20 and 23, led in part by $250 million in single-day outflows from BlackRock ETHA. This sell off slowed the momentum and kept ETH below the $3,000 handle.
However, the flow data points to turnover and profitability rather than institutional abandonment. On-chain monitoring shows whales resuming long periods of tight liquidity and open interest as they accumulated nearly $1 billion in ETH during the recent correction. That combination indicates energy is flowing, not confidence.
Movement on the chain tells a different story
Below the price, Ethereum network activity remains strong. Daily active addresses rose to 1.3 million, with transaction counts ranging from 1.9 million to 2.2 million per day.
Confirmation behavior reinforces this trend: exit queues are close to zero, entry queues are rebuilding, and engagement is on the rise, strengthening circulation.
Lower fees and improved efficiency post upgrades are also driving continued DeFi and app adoption, reinforcing the “price weak, fundamentals firm” dynamic that has historically preceded large trend movements.
Ethereum rises despite US-Iran tensions
On the geopolitical front, tensions are rising between the US and Iran, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard “more ready than ever” as US warships move to the Middle East. The warning follows Iran's recent crackdown on protests that have left thousands dead, and Trump has laid out strict red lines for military action to prevent mass killings and violence against civilians.
Despite these geopolitical tensions, Ethereum (ETH) continues to rise. This suggests that investors remain optimistic about Ethereum's growth, perhaps supported by strong developments such as the Ethereum Foundation prioritizing post-quantum security.
Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH will build around $2,950 when it sees its next leg
Technically, the Ethereum price forecast is weak as ETH holds above $2,850-$2,900, a key support zone aligned with prior interest and Fibonacci confluence. RSI remains eroded around 35-40, indicating caution but not capital.
A retracement of $3,060 for a support reset would reopen to $3,190–$3,400, while a clean break below $2,800 would threaten a deep retracement to $2,700.

Looking ahead, the Ethereum 2026 roadmap will add weight to the long-term issue. The upcoming Glamsterdam update and later Hegota chapter will focus on building on the development of Blob infrastructure and accelerating Layer-2 adoption.
With more than 8.7 million new contracts in place for the year, analysts see 2026 as the breakout period if macro conditions stabilize.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) Trade Setup: $2,850–$2,900, target $3,190–$3,400, price rally below $2,700.
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