Kalshi, HyperLiquid, IB still serve Dutch consumers Polymarket ban fails to clear market
Dutch users can access crypto prediction markets despite the previous ban on market leader Polymarket.
Polymarket was banned by the Netherlands Gaming Authority (Ksa) in February for gambling without a licence. However, US-based Kalshi, crypto exchange HyperLiquid and investment giant Interactive Brokers are still offering a prediction market to Dutch users, according to research by Dutch financial newspaper FD.
Ksa warned that the Polymarket ban would also apply to similar platforms. “Websites similar to Polymarket also fall under our control and may be sanctioned by us,” the spokesperson was quoted as saying.
Kalshi appears to be actively targeting the Dutch market, the report said, adding that users can bet on Dutch Eredivisie football matches and previously had the option to bet on Dutch elections. HyperLiquid, which operates as a decentralized blockchain platform, recently expanded its prediction market to the Netherlands.
Meanwhile, interactive brokers, whose products are financial contracts rather than gambling, will be regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, the report said. However, the Central Bank of Ireland told the FD it had no knowledge of the arrangement and referred questions to the Irish Gambling Authority.
Related: The prediction market battle is heading to the Supreme Court.
Cointelegraph reached out to Kalshin, HyperLiquid and Interactive Brokers for comment, but did not receive a response by press time.
Globally controlled prediction markets
Prediction markets are facing global regulatory reckoning. Last month, Brazil moved to shut down 27 platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket. A growing number of European countries, including France, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland and Poland, have banned or penalized platforms that operate without a license. Hungary and Portugal also compete with Polymarket.
The size of forecast markets. Source: Token Terminal
In the United States, the picture is more fragmented. A federal-state battle has erupted over who has the power to regulate the prediction markets. The CFTC has filed lawsuits in recent weeks in Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, New York and Wisconsin.
Venture capital firm a16z supported the federal position, arguing that forcing exchanges based on their residency conflicts with the CFTC's independent entry rules.
Related: Kalshi, Polymarket among 27 betting platforms banned in Brazil
Most traders lose money on prediction markets
According to an April study by the London Business School, only 3% of forecast market participants make consistent profits, and nearly 70% lose money.
There is also the issue of insider trading in the prediction markets. Anonymous traders are known to bet correctly on the US attack on Iran and the assassination attempt on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi
