A classic chart pattern signals that ETH may slip below $2k.
The price of Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) threatens to fall below $2,000 in February, setting up a classic bullfight.
Main Receptors:
ETH breakout will focus on $1,665 lower target.
The MVRV bands indicate a possible drop to $1,725 or lower.
ETH risk of 25% decline in February
Since Wednesday, ETH has entered the level of a typical inverse-cap-and-hand (IC&H) pattern. This could extend the downtrend that has wiped out about 60% from the August 2025 high.
An IC&H pattern is formed when the price forms a circular top and floats higher in a minor recovery channel. It usually resolves when price breaks below the neckline support, often falling as high as the cup height.
Ether broke below the inverse cup-and-handle neckline near $2,960 in January. It later returned to retest that level as resistance, a common post-crash move, to continue the decline.
ETH's rebound stopped below the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs, which served as overhead resistance.
These correlation indicators reduce ETHS odds to the IC&H breakout target of $1,665, by 25%, in February or early March.
Historically, the inverse cup and handle hits its intended downside target with an 82 percent success rate, according to research by ChartsWatcher.
From a macro perspective, Ethereum's downside risk is increasing as traders reduce crypto bets, fearing that the market could enter a major 2026 crash similar to the “four-year cycle” controversies of the past.
Fears of an “AI bubble” are also forcing traders to shy away from risky bets like crypto.
Ethereum's MVRV bands have hinted at a target of $1,725
Ethereum's technical downside target is set below the lower bound of MVRV's ultra-low price bands, currently at $1,725.
These bands are onchain price zones that show when ETH is trading below or above the average price at which traders last moved their coins.
Historically, the price of ETH has fallen near or below the lower MVRV band before bottoming out.
After testing the lower MVRV deviation band around $1,390, the ETH price will increase by 90% for the month, adding a bounce in April 2025. A similar reset occurred in June 2018.
RELATED: ETH Funding Rate Turns Negative, But US Macro Conditions Mute Buy Signal
Therefore, Ether may drop to $1,725 or lower in February, which is similar to IC&H's lower target.
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