Analysis of Bitcoin Price ‘Ultimate’ Bear Market Lowers to $55,000
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Ahmed Balaha
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Bitcoin may not have hit true capital yet. On-chain analytics company CryptoQuant warns that the real bear market floor could be set at $55,000. That's less than most bulls are willing to admit.
If their data is correct, the market will still have some pain before the proper structural foundation is formed. Weak hands cannot be washed completely. And until that final reset happens, it might be a little too early to call this the final bottom.
Key receivers
According to CryptoQuant data, based on realistic price models, the “last” bottom of the bear market is close to $55,000. Bitcoin recently experienced a net loss of $5.4 billion on February 5, the largest since March 2023. Key assessment parameters such as MVRV and NUPL have not yet reached historical capitation zones.
Is the sale finally over?
CryptoQuant says we're still in a typical bear phase, not the extreme panic zone that usually once signals buying cycle opportunities. In their view, the bottom is not a single candle. They are long and messy processes that take time to build.
Meanwhile, price action continues to slide. ETF flows are piling up and traders are worried about Bitcoin losing $66,000. But according to the data, we still haven't seen the kind of pain that usually corrects the market.
Bitcoin price is trading above 25% of its realized value, a level that has historically served as strong support.
In past cycles like 2018 and the FTX crash, Bitcoin has fallen from 24 percent to 30 percent below its realized value. If that pattern repeats, the $55,000 area will be the viewing zone.
Perceived losses and cost measures
The latest CryptoQuant data shows real damage under the surface.
In the year It was the biggest one-day loss since March 2023.
But even with those numbers, key valuation metrics aren't lighting up yet.
The MVRV ratio has not fallen into the extremely low value zone that is often seen in cyclical lows. The NUPL scale also did not hit the deep unrealized loss levels that typically characterize capital.
Longtime owners tell a similar story. Many are currently being sold during the holidays. At the end of the last bear market, they were sitting at a loss of 30% to 40%.
If history is any guide, the final capitation phase may require a deep reset before a durable surface can be formed. Until then, patience may be more beneficial than premature bearish calls.
If Bitcoin needs another reset, Bitcoin Hyper won't work
When analysts start talking about a “true statement”, it means something. Bitcoin may remain slower and harder than bulls expect.
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If Bitcoin needs more time down, Bitcoin Hyper will be activated during the wait.
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