As spot trader interest fades, BTC stands near $98,000
Bitcoin (BTC)'s push towards $100,000 has met strong resistance, with demand in the spot showing signs of fatigue as sellers enter. After hitting a high of around $98,000 on Wednesday, BTC has bounced back for two consecutive sessions, falling below $95,000 in the New York session on Friday.
Main Receptors:
Bitcoin's pullback is reflected in a weakened Coinbase premium following waning spot demand.
Evidence suggests that demonstrations were driven by aggressive buyers, but without sustained monitoring.
Short-term holders sell to strength above 40,000 BTC when the price approaches the cost base.
The demand for Bitcoin has fallen to the top of the area
The correction coincided with a rollover in the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. The index briefly turned positive near its highs, indicating late position buying, but prices failed to move higher, indicating limited follow-through from large buyers.
Bitcoin Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has made a higher high and the price has found a higher low. This divergence usually indicates selling pressure that attracts market buying but is not strong enough to push the price higher.
At the same time, the bid-ask ratio has remained negative throughout the rally, meaning that sell orders continue to outweigh bids as prices rise, a sign that buyers are taking offers rather than building passive support.
After sharp short liquidation, open interest fell along with the price. This indicates that energy is out, and new long positions are not interested in entering, which slows the momentum behind the move.
Market analysis firm Material Indicators said the bears “fought hard” as they reversed on the daily chart. The company warned that missing key trends could lead to a deeper test of support, although a retracement above $97,000 would undermine the latest bearish signs.
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Short-term holders will receive a profit on a cost basis
The rally followed clear gains from short-term holders (STHs). On January 6, when BTC reached $94,000, STHs sent more than 30,000 BTC of profit to the exchanges. That behavior was repeated on Thursday as the price fell above $97,000, a gain of over 40,000 BTC in one day.
Although STH's discount has narrowed to -4% from -22% over the past two months, the price has stalled near $98,300 on STH's cost basis. At a realistic price close to $102,000, STH's behavior suggests that preserving capital is a priority until strong evidence to the contrary emerges.
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