Before 2026 arrives, XRP price may experience a major crash.
XRP is down 1.6% in the last 24 hours. On the weekly chart, it remains one of the weakest large-cap movers, sitting 16% below last month's levels. Much of the price action takes place near the bottom of a descending triangle pattern, a structure that often leads to continuation moves.
This doesn't guarantee a breakout just yet, but three market signals are lining up to make traders wary heading into the final days of 2025.
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Retailers and long-term owners are going the same way.
XRP is still stuck in a descending triangle, trading flat near the lower trend line. Between December 18 and December 27, prices showed an upward trend, but the Money Flow Index (MFI) moved in the opposite direction during the same period.
The MFI tracks the money coming in or going out of the property. MFI's low price increase shows that retail is selling to each throw instead of collecting.
That push will cause the XRP price to peg at the lower bound of the pattern instead of testing the upper line.
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The concern grows when we turn to long-term owners.
Wallets holding XRP for 2-3 years have dropped from 14.26% supply on November 26 to 5.66% on December 26, according to HODL Waves, which visualizes how much supply takes place in each age group.
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These are long-term delinquents, and selling them removes market support. Retail weakness is common. Long-term weakness is not the same time.
This creates a composition where short-term and long-term behavior are supported in the same direction: out of XRP.
Capital flows indicate a fading demand
If retail and long-term delinquency are weakening, the next check is capital flow, the third key indicator.
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Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) does not provide relief. CMF tracks buying and selling pressure based on volume and price movement. A large money flow indicator for XRP remains negative and is sliding along a descending support line.
Simply put, even though prices are flat, large capital flows into property are shrinking, and the market is oversupplied. Yet if there is no lift in the CMF, the market loses another potential safety net.
This is why the price of XRP has remained flat instead of rebounding.
XRP price levels will determine if the gap actually occurred.
For now, XRP is held between $1.90 and $1.81. The $1.90 level was lost on December 22nd and has not returned since. A retracement of $1.90 and then a push to $1.99 would be the first sign of strength.
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This indicates a move above the upper limit of the triangle and gives the bulls something to work with.
However, the bear case is more clear than the bull at the moment.
If $1.81 is broken, XRP could break out of the descending triangle pattern, which would be a guaranteed breakout. That loss could open to $1.68, if the structure fails completely, and $1.52 if the sell-off accelerates.
This is not a given yet, but the market has yet to show any sign of a rebound. As long as retail sales, long-term distribution and weak capital flows are not ruled out, XRP's price should struggle to hold its range.
