Bets on Trump’s election led Polymarket to record $116 million in July
Fever over the US presidential election has led to crypto forecasting platform Polymarket's record levels of volume – the first two weeks of July saw more volume than any other month in history.
According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket saw $116.4 million in sales this month, up from $111.5 million in the previous peak month in June.
Much of the amount that the prediction market trades can be derived directly from speculation by betting on the outcome of the US presidential election.
A total of $263.5 million was generated by political traders who could win the US presidential election on November 4.
At the time of publication, Trump is the favorite among forecasters with a 69% chance of victory, followed by incumbent President Joe Biden in a distant second at 19%.
Vice President Kamala Harris was third with 6 percent, while former first lady Michelle Obama was fourth with just 2 percent.
Since the beginning of this year, a total of $471.9 million has been stolen on Polymarket across events ranging from politics, finance, sports and crypto.
Polymarketing has featured Nate Silver
Meanwhile, Polymarket has reportedly brought on polling analyst and statistician Nate Silver as a consultant, according to a July 16 report from Axios.
Silver says prediction markets aren't all about financial speculation, they're very useful in helping people understand the broader sentiment during turbulent social and political times.
RELATED: Biden's re-election odds hit single digits at Polymarket
“Opportunities are very important when you're trying to make a plan,” Silver said.
Silver is one of the few analysts who believe Trump's choice of crypto-friendly Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate could hurt Trump's campaign.
On May 14, Polymarket closed a $70 million Series B funding round led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and featuring prominent participants including Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin.
Although not available to traders living in the United States, Polymarkets are primarily used to predict the outcome of US political events.
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