Bitcoin Cycle Shift? Analyst put 55-65% chances on 2026 green

Analysts will likely see a green 2026 if BTC secures strong monthly closes above $105K and holds $90K support.

On January 14, the price of Bitcoin rose above $97,000, the highest level since November.

The move came as the popular historical price pattern showed a clear divergence, leading analysts to argue that the fundamental structure of the market was changing.

deviation from the historical rhythm

According to analyst Egrag Crypto, for more than a decade, Bitcoin annual price candles follow a simple and repetitive sequence: three consecutive green (up) years followed by one red (down) year. This pattern corresponds to a four-year half-cycle, with the year after the decline typically being bullish.

Egrag says this cycle has already broken that rhythm. The sequence from 2023 to 2025 was a green, green, red, deviation from the expected green, green, green, red pattern of previous cycles. The market watcher assigns a 55% to 65% chance of a 2026 green finish, framing the 2025 red candle as a cooling level rather than a broad reversal.

That view focuses on confirmation signals, including strong monthly closes above around $105,000, price stability from the macro band around $90,000, and higher timeframes. EAG puts the red 2026 at 35-45%, indicating an extended consolidation rather than a crash, with a wide range and slower growth.

The argument echoed comments from chartist Planby, who wrote on X that the four-year cycle should not be confused with the stock-to-flow model. While post-half-years typically perform well, 2025 clearly broke that pattern.

Planby added that stock-to-flow averages prices over a cycle, not a top or bottom, and noted that the current cycle average is nearly $90,000, which is $34,000 higher than the cycle.

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Price action and holder behavior

According to CoinGecko data, at the time of this writing, BTC was trading just below $97,000, about 2% on the day, with a weekly gain of close to 8% and an increase of approximately 12% over the past month.

The price moved just below $90,000 to touch $98,000 within days, reclaiming several previous resistance zones, with analysts such as Ted Truss now looking at the 50-week retracement near $97,500 as a technical test after the asset reclaimed the $95,000 range.

Short-term holders remain more active. According to Darkfost, when BTC rose to $97,000, more than 40,000 BTC of profit was sent to exchanges in one day, suggesting caution after the late 2025 correction.

In contrast, Bitcoin's market share rose more than 57 percent, with most of the larger altcoins lagging behind, bolstering its relative strength during the recovery.