Bitcoin traders show ‘strong signs’ of 2026 bull case: $107K BTC next?

Bitcoin (BTC) entered the last week of the year up 30% from the $126,000 all-time high reached on October 6.

Main Receptors:

The classic “Christmas bear trap” It could be ahead of a possible relief rally in 2026.

Slowing ETF flows, less long-term bond selling pressure and macro factors suggest an extended bull cycle is possible.

BTC Equivalent Triangle Project Increases 22% to $107,000.

Bitcoin's many signs of strength

Bitcoin's 2.6% decline from Monday's $90,000 low could be a “Christmas bear trap,” analyst James Bull said.

A bear trap is a false technical signal in which the price briefly breaks above a key support level, triggering a selloff and causing a stop loss, quickly reversing upward, trapping bears (short sellers) at a loss.

Related: Bitfinex whales go long BTC for 2026: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

“Bitcoin is setting up a Christmas bear trap, which will reverse in January as it has in the last 4 years,” James Bull said in X newspaper on Monday.

Looking at the most recent case, the BTC/USD pair fell 8.5% between December 26 and December 31, 2024, before changing 12.5% ​​between January 1 and January 6, 2025.

Fellow analyst ₿itcoin Therapist said Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2026 as the four-year cycle breaks, setting up “the biggest bear trap in history.”

James Bull added that the decline of the four-year cycle could signal the end of the old retail-led boom-bust cycle and a change in the structure of the Bitcoin market, characterized by growing institutional adoption through ETFs and corporate treasuries. This, combined with macro factors like rate cuts and liquidity, could propel BTC's price to new highs in 2026.

Meanwhile, Citigroup analysts set a 12-month base case forecast for Bitcoin at $143,000, driven primarily by “renewed ETF demand,” with a bull case target of $189,000.

As for spot Bitcoin ETF flows, James Bull says outflows have slowed significantly from -1,600 BTC on November 21 and are now “going to zero”. The chart below shows the same situation in April before a 33% price rally to $112,000 on May 22. Bull added.

“This is not a guarantee that Bitcoin will return to ATHs, but it is a strong signal.”

As Cointelegraph reports, Bitcoin selling pressure from long-term holders is showing signs of cooling, strengthening the potential for a January 2025 rally.

BTC price has a similar triangle target of $107,000

Data from TradingView shows the BTC/USD pair consolidating in a congruent triangle on a daily candlestick chart as shown below.

To continue the upward trend, the price should measure $107,400 and close at $90,000 above the upper trend line of the triangle.

Such a move will bring the total profit to 22% from the current level.

“Bitcoin forms a symmetrical triangle pattern,” said analyst Demi-Defi in a recent analysis on X.

“If Bitcoin pushes above that upper line and holds higher, we're looking at a major breakout to the higher resistance levels around $94k and then $106k.”

According to Cointelegraph, every day more than $90,000 will trigger a new rally for six figures.

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