BTC Leads Recovery As Altcoin Indicators Hit Cyclic Lows
Bitcoin (BTC)'s recent recovery above $71,000 suggests that the market may be stabilizing. TOTAL2, which tracks the market value of all crypto assets excluding Bitcoin, has held support at its 200-week moving average, but is the altcoin season underway?
The divergence between the Bitcoin Rally and muted altcoin price action is starting to draw attention to altseason indicators, raising questions about whether the broader market could soon follow BTC's lead.
TOTAL2 tested long-term support below $1 trillion
TOTAL2's market cap is expected to reach $1.7 trillion by October 2025, but currently sits at $970 billion, representing a roughly 43 percent decline. The decline intensified after the market cap broke a three-year upward trend in January at around $1.15 trillion.
Market focus has now shifted to higher timeframe support. On the weekly chart, the market value of TOTAL2 is nearing the 200-week moving average of $900 billion, a level held during the September 2024 and April 2025 market correction.
The daily chart shows a consolidation below the previous trend and a resistance band of $1.1 trillion to $1.25 trillion.
The altcoin position metrics are consistent with the drop in TOTAL2. CryptoQuant data shows that 36.8% of altcoins are trading near their historic lows, excluding Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and Stablecoin.
These higher readings occur when capital accumulates in larger assets. According to XWIN research, the flow rate of Bitcoin ETFs and the ever-increasing number of tokens have intensified the competition for smaller assets compared to last year.
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Average altcoin performances near cyclical lows
CryptoQuant data reveals how many altcoins have deeply outperformed Bitcoin. The average altcoin is trading 44.4% below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a level historically seen near the bottom of bear-levels.
The exchange data also shows a similar weakness. Only 4.59% of Binance-listed altcoins trade above the 200-day SMA, confirming Bitcoin's strong-leading status.
The expansion of altcoins usually starts with the leadership of Ether (ETH). The ETH/BTC pair did not make any progress and continues to trade in a descending channel on the weekly chart.
A move above 0.036 could indicate an initial breakout of the channel's local resistance and improving relative strength for ETH. A stronger reversal is likely if the pair regains 0.043, a level that previously served as resistance before the broader decline in 2025.
Until these levels return, Bitcoin-led momentum will continue to dominate the recovering crypto market.
Market analysts are debating whether the next altcoin cycle will resemble past rallies. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan recently stated that future altcoin cycles may not affect the entire market equally, arguing that the capital will be focused on projects with strong adoption and real-world applications.
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