Can XRP price recover in March?
A plausible bullish reversal setup and hints of a easing whale spread could push XRP's price up 20% or more in March.
XRP (XRP) is down more than 50% since October 2025, with five consecutive monthly losses. Can March finally touch the bear's tail?
Main Receptors:
XRP's double-bottom setup targets 20% upside in March.
Whaling sales have slowed and large-cap stocks are increasing, improving the outlook for a crash.
Double bottom hints at 20% XRP rally
As of Thursday, XRP was forming a double-bottom pattern after holding the $1.30–$1.35 support area twice in February.
A double bottom is formed when the price reaches a floor twice on a repeat. It resolves on a breakout above the neckline, usually setting an upside target equal to the height of the pattern.
For XRP, the neckline sits near $1.50. A critical break above it will increase the likelihood of XRP reaching $1.68–$1.70 in March, which is about 20% above current levels.
XRP whale flows improve the chances of recovery
After spending months in circulation, XRP's net flows are slowing to neutral levels, according to data source CryptoQuant.
As of Thursday, the 90-day moving average total whale inflow was about -3.29 million XRP, compared to roughly -33.50 million XRP in December. This shows that despite a 25% drop in prices during the same period, the whaling flow has decreased significantly.
At the same time, the supply of XRP held by wallets with at least 1,000 tokens has continued to rise in recent weeks, suggesting that the whales have stopped selling and may be regrouping at current lows.
A similar flurry of whale flows occurred in April 2025, which preceded XRP's more than 50% recovery.
Therefore, a clean reversal above zero would indicate net accumulation and strengthen the case for XRP to reach its $1.68–$1.70 double-bottom target in March.
What can destroy the bullish XRP situation?
The $1.68–$1.70 range is above XRP's 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, red trend line), a level the price failed to break until February.
A pullback from the 50-day EMA may prevent XRP from hitting the double-bottom target. That's around $1 off the price target, a 30% drop from current price levels, which could further trigger a bearish pennant show.
Related: $209B Out of Altcoins in Last 13 Months: Are Traders Turning to Bitcoin?
Macro risks are another headwind. AI-driven risk trading and US-Iran tensions could drain liquidity from high-beta assets, making it difficult for XRP to sustain a breakout even if the chart setup looks promising at the moment.
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