Writing a forecast piece is a humble thought experiment. My three wild bet b of Year of the tiger It turned out to be very inaccurate. Specifically:
(1) I predicted that China will produce the next popular crypto game. Instead, the entire gaming industry has launched more tokens than games. I am still hopeful, mainly because of the abundance of talent from China. They know how to get people addicted to pretend boxes.
(2) I predicted that Chinese tech giants would go big on NFTs. The mixed reality was that when Chinese tech giants fled the NFT market after the bear hit, there was a constant stream of inflows. Chinese famous people Launch NFTs as pet projects. some State governments They have also opened their arms to embrace NFTs to encourage the creative industry.
(3) He predicted that a thousand DAOs would emerge from the Chinese crypto community. Instead, we found ourselves in a thousand airdrop-farming studios, honing in on anti-Sybil exercises and accumulating points. The few remaining DAOs are still active, but the days are gone when making a DAO manifesto is considered promiscuous.
Forecasts are difficult because we use the most recent and somewhat optimistic data points to predict the roller-coaster market. But that doesn't mean predicting them isn't fun.
So here we go again! Here are my wild predictions for China, crypto, and the Year of the Dragon!
Table of Contents
Toggle1. Chinese societies invent and export new degenerate narratives.
It's always been the most overlooked hidden power in crypto. Chinese aunts. They have created monologues, narratives and price movements on topics unknown to the western crypto illuminati.
Did you know that the word “KOL” – for key opinion leader – originated in China? It's an undisputed Chinglish phrase simply because Chinese can't pronounce the word “influencer.”
Last year, Bitcoin Ordinals and Bitcoin Layer-2 caught most industry participants off guard. Not only has the token's price soared, but a new class of developers and funds have begun to pour resources into “making Bitcoin great again.”
At the beginning, BRC20 and Ordi surprised the Chinese community 0XWizardA leading KOL in the Bitcoin ecosystem told me. “The Chinese are more open to new tokens and asset classes as long as there is a wealth effect. Forget about technology—the Chinese will ape anything that makes them money.
Closely following the renaissance of Bitcoin was the birth of ERC-404, a semi-volatile yet completely informal token standard. Both share the same origin: China Davis. While many alignment people criticize the rejection of such a standard, I believe that this baby step is a reflection of the Chinese society's desire to reduce the cost of setting a new standard!
But more importantly, this new class of Chinese builders has learned a few things about shaping narratives – Bitcoin or ponzi token levels. In the year In 2024, we will see many original pornographic plays from Chinese society. Bonus prediction: Some strategies will be adopted and adopted by the wider crypto community.
2. Everything is going in chains – even in China
Yes, we are going in chains.
Starting with centralized exchanges, the three major exchanges are building their Web3 kingdoms: wallet, native protocol, and many native dapps.
For example, OKX launched its multi-chain wallet in 2023 The first bag that is not a container To support Bitcoin Ordinals. So is the exchange In collaboration with Polygon To start a new layer-2 chain called X1. Willingly or unwillingly, Chinese entrepreneurs are building infrastructure and bringing existing users into the chain world.
Question forums are another favorite of Chinese builders. Garage Single-handedly does more transactions on the chain than all the other sites combined. Most of these missions are for weather farmers, but they serve the ultimate goal of rewarding the users for actually using the blockchain.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the development of Ethereum comes from Chinese researchers, especially in Zero-knowledge And Account abstraction Space. Groups like it Scroll And Tycho They are developing Ethereum alongside the Ethereum Foundation. Soul Wallet and Blocto are pushing the smart contract wallet front.
3. The flight of crypto people from the Middle Kingdom
A few things from last year stuck in my head. One day I received a telegram message from a Chinese crypto founder/friend. In the year I will cover the story in 2020. He asked if I could take down that story because the Chinese government did not want him to reveal his identity. This was urgent because the government was in the middle. Hacking on multiple crypto founders and investors.
This founder “wanted to disappear from the Internet.
We took the piece down. But the question makes me sad because he was in the first generation of honest crypto builders that offered a strong DeFi product. Now he has to kill himself to continue working in our industry. “Going Anendo” may not be a big sacrifice for small business builders, but for those who want their products to touch the lives of a billion people, “disappearing” is not an option.
There are also alternative lifestyles. Singapore attracted the first wave of wealthy crypto OGs, followed by a small number of developers (up to 3AC happened.). Hong Kong In 2022, as a local government, it took control of the steam station Openly accept Web3.
Thailand has become a paradise for young, hipster, deranged crypto-ideas. by Dan Wang 2023 newspaperA picture of young crypto-runners engaging in deep philosophical topics about the state of the nation, geopolitics, security and psychology over $2 desserts.
In Dubai, where I live, crypto was “only” trending. Most Chinese exchanges have moved their global headquarters to the United Arab Emirates. Crypto-native builders consider Dubai a potential nest to live in (yes, up to 0% tax!).
Compared to the time of covid when living abroad was a forced choice, now many crypto natives Choosing To live abroad. Other crypto-native friends are equally mobile, so they might last a few months here and there.
In the year 2024 I predict that this will be the year that these scattered nomadic communities grow more, become more involved and more influential. I hope there are new developments in these communities centered around ideology, faith, hobbies, culture and food. Maybe the DAO idea will come back. Perhaps the next popular crypto game will be born from such a group. Maybe it's just the friendships people make along the way.
The impact of having a decentralized Chinese society forces us to be different. By physically living with each other, we further remove the boundaries between East and West.
The more I think about these bets, the more I realize that these predictions are based on my optimism about society. As the crypto industry transitions into an on-chain bull market, so will Chinese society. Also, in Chinese, “dragon” is synonymous with “long” (龙). Long market – but also long Chinese society!
