Could Dogecoin (DOGE) Be Set For Its Next Big Move? Analysts think

On-chain URPD data and whale activity indicate that Dogecoin is sitting in high-interest reserves for long-term holders.

Dogecoin (DOGE) gained a modest 2% on Monday, near $0.086, above the main support zone. But fresh analysis shows that the OG meme coin is at a critical breaking point.

Long-term technical patterns and data on the chain historically indicate a strong interest area that supports major macro moves.

Zone of interest

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, DOGE's price action has followed multi-year consolidation channels since its inception, with the asset frequently moving in ranges that impose volatility and redistribute supply before large bull cycles begin. Currently, Dogecoin is above the $0.081 level, which is the lower border of the average range of the five-year parallel channel that will work from 2021.

Martinez cites data on the chain to explain why this zone acts as strong support. UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) is a metric that tracks the price levels at which all circulating tokens last moved. According to this information, there is a large supply of $0.081, where more than 30 billion DOGE tokens were last purchased. He described this as a major historical positional vulnerability, creating psychological and structural support at current price levels.

To this end, over the past week, whales have accumulated more than 200 million DOGE tokens, indicating buying interest near this price zone.

DOGE targets

Instead of timing short-term price movements or picking an exact bottom, Martinez outlines a dollar cost averaging approach. His framework focuses on gradually building spaces on two key levels. The first is $0.081, which corresponds to the URPD focus and the middle range of the long-term channel. The second multi-year channel structure represents the lower bound at $0.058.

From this, he identified two possible scenarios. On the first, if the $0.081 level continues to hold selling pressure, Dogecoin may stabilize and return to higher levels in the broader channel, supported by continued whale demand. In the second scenario, if broader macro factors push the price to a weekly close below $0.081, the structure will move into a deep retracement phase, with the next major support at $0.058.

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In a separate analysis, Alfractal's Joao Wedson stated that DOGE is now in a bearish phase, based on the CVD signal, which previously showed major market reversals.

According to him, when Dogecoin closes below this level or sells short, strong reversals follow. He added that the next signal would be triggered if DOGE falls below $0.08.