Could More Geopolitical Tension Take BTC Back To Six Figures?

Bitcoin hit a three-week high as geopolitical tensions escalated again and analysts predicted more gains if history is bullish.

BTC gained $93,000 in Asia on Monday morning following the US strike on Venezuela over the weekend.

Analysts are now looking for further potential gains and the possibility of a return to six-figure Bitcoin prices. Michael Nadeau from the DeFi report drew a comparison between the Ukraine invasion at the beginning of 2022 where BTC surged 22% in the following weeks.

“In the current environment, I was expecting a move towards the 50-week moving average for BTC at $101,700,” he said. “Now we have a trigger. The real question is whether that level can be sustained if it actually happens again.”

Bear market attack

What the analyst didn't mention was that 2022 was a bear market year when BTC was down 77% from its all-time high. In the same bear market scenario in 2026, the asset is down to $30,000.

Trader Aaron Dishner echoed the sentiment, saying many traders in 2016 As they close their positions for tax purposes at the end of 2025 and buy heavily at the beginning of 2026, the crypto markets will turn around in early January.

“But my BTC target is still $100k before the next leg down, and I think many of you are wondering why!? Well, this has happened at the beginning of every past bear market – in 2022, 2018 and 2015. This time is no different for me.”

Joe Consorti, the Bitcoin entrepreneur, was initially confident that he would return to six figures. BTC is back above its 50-day moving average for the first time since October, testing levels not seen since early December.

“Selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. Retracement of 50-week MA at $101k and hold needed.”

BTC is waking up in the new year, it has already increased by 6.24%.

It is back above the 50-day moving average for the first time since October. Test levels will not be available from early December.

The selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.

A 50-week MA at $101K is required to redeem and hold. pic.twitter.com/EJVlVPLN6p

— Joe Consorti (@joeconsorti) January 5,

Bitcoin will move up

BTC touched $93,000 twice in the last few hours, but failed to break above, falling to $92,500 at the time of writing. The asset is now moving to the upper band of the six-week lateral channel and needs to clear the resistance above $94,000 to break out of it.

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“There is strength underneath this general downtrend,” analyst ‘Sykodelic' added, adding, “Two days ago we had a double buy signal on relative strength.”