Crypto has struggled in 2025 despite positive fundamentals.
Analysts and investors are questioning why crypto is not in a bull market given the amount of positive drivers that have occurred this year.
“At some point, we have to admit that something is structurally wrong in the crypto market,” CNBC crypto contributor Ran Nunner said on Tuesday.
He noted that several favorable factors should contribute to the performance of crypto markets, including increased liquidity, a pro-crypto US government, various exchange-traded fund launches, major institutional and crypto-treasury investment, and strong performance in traditional markets such as gold, silver and major stock indices.
However, the crypto markets are on track to end the year less than when it started, the total market capitalization has fallen more than 32% from the 4.4 trillion dollars at the beginning of October and has decreased by almost 13% since January 1st.
Two possible outcomes for crypto
Neuner said there are two possible outcomes for crypto: “really broke and sold off” or “the mother of all traders because that's how markets work.”
Economist Adam Kobeisi said, “One day we'll look at the seemingly daily mass outflows of the last 2 months and it will become clear what's going on.”
“Crypto Is Experiencing Structural Change Between Historical Usage Levels.”
Related: Most Crypto Sectors Lag Bitcoin in Last 3 Months: Glassnode
Analyst “Planby” called it a great battle until the sellers are out of ammo, explaining that the selling pressure is still coming, “OGs traumatized in 2021,” looking at the relative strength index of technical investors, and the reason for the four-year cycle of believers and bear markets.
Crypto winter is already here.
Meanwhile, some analysts are convinced that the bear market is already underway.
“Bitcoin entered a bear market at the end of October 2025, becoming the first major risk asset for value in a sluggish economy,” 10x Research Executive Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph.
“Retail participation has not returned meaningfully this cycle, and value creation has remained narrowly focused in bitcoin rather than expanding across risk assets. Winter is not approaching; it has already arrived.”
Things are not that bad
While spot markets have underperformed, the industry's fundamentals remain strong.
“While prices may have fallen below expectations, this year they have experienced more structural growth than any other in the history of crypto,” Erik Lowe, head of content at blockchain venture company Pantera, said in a report on Tuesday.
Like Nenner, he listed a number of significant achievements for the industry this year, including staff changes and positions at US financial regulators, the establishment of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset reserve, and stable coin supplies and onchain valuation of real-world assets.
“In this respect, we believe there is no more important year for the industry than 2025. This is the year we begin to cast deep caissons to support sustainable, long-term growth.”
Magazine: Bitcoin Critical Level Is $82.5K, Ethereum ‘Not Done Yet': Trade Secrets
