Due to the growing fear, Bitcoin traders are playing below $66K BTC in April
Main Receptors:
Bitcoin options are growing pessimistic as professional traders lose confidence that the $66,000 level will last long.
The emergence of David Sachs as crypto and AI czar and the lack of a clear US strategic bitcoin reserve plan have added to investor uncertainty.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $65,530 on Friday, down 8% from the $71,300 level seen on Thursday. The move wiped out more than $210 million worth of Bitcoin futures and rendered most call options worth $18.6 billion in monthly expirations. Traders now expect a 53% chance that Bitcoin will stay below $66,000 on April 24.
On Friday, April 24 Bitcoin traded $66,000 worth of options at 0.0566 BTC or approximately $3,730. With a 53% implied chance of Bitcoin trading below $66,000 at the end of April, sentiment remains decidedly bearish following increased uncertainty in the US and the Israel-Iran war, pushing traders into risk-on mode.
US inflation concerns and stopped crypto, Bitcoin law
Rising oil prices and $200 billion in additional U.S. military spending prompted investors to demand higher returns on government bonds and dragged the S&P 500 to its lowest level since September 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rose to $100 on Friday, with the 5-year Treasury yield at 3.72% from 4.07% three weeks earlier.
Inflation and poor corporate earnings outlooks alone cannot explain Bitcoin's 20% underperformance relative to the S&P 500 in 2026. Other factors may also be at play, including investor discomfort over the lack of growth in the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
David Sachs steps down as Trump administration's crypto and AI czar. While Sachs remains an advisor to the President's Council on Science and Technology, his departure follows comments that have raised expectations for Bitcoin investors. Sachs has previously hinted that the United States could acquire more bitcoins through budget-neutral means without raising taxes.
Related: US Legislators Publish Crypto Tax Proposal Without Bitcoin Tax Exemption
Bitcoin options delta skew jumped to 15% on Friday, indicating that options are trading at a significant premium relative to call instruments. Under fair market conditions, this ratio usually ranges between -6% and +6%. The current level of $66,000 indicates a lack of conviction among whalers. Fear has largely dominated the Bitcoin options market since mid-January.
The beloved neutral-to-depression strategies of Bitcoin options are expiring
Friday's monthly options close at $68,610 proved unfavorable for neutral-to-bullish strategies, as 97% of call options were voided. Bears prevailed, with options at $69,000 or higher. Crucially, part of Friday's downward movement reflects a growing interest among traders to maintain exposure to Bitcoin over the weekend.
X social platform user WhalePanda suggested that the risk to the markets is that President Trump will make “another stupid move” after the US markets are closed. Consequently, the current fear in the options market may reverse if no major geopolitical events occur before Monday.
During bullish cycles, traders often rush to the exits at the sight of any potentially negative event. Investors should not price Bitcoin in the face of implied odds as these metrics are heavily influenced by recent news and headlines. However, expectations may change for the better if Iran offers a counter-proposal to the US peace proposal.
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