ETH Bulls target $2.8K but data shows many obstacles

After reaching a monthly high of $2209 on Friday, Ether (ETH) price has broken below key monthly resistance tested five times since February.

While on-chain data highlights many investors near $2,800, Ether futures market data shows that traders are increasing their positions after this week's rally.

Investors' $2,800 cost base highlights the main accumulation zone

According to Glassnode data, the heat map of ETH's cost-based distribution shows heavy accumulation around $2,800, with more than 3 million ETH bought previously.

Cost base clusters identify price zones where large groups of investors have established positions, often acting as magnets as investors protect entry levels or move up as they increase exposure.

The data suggests a possible path to $2,800. Specifically, there is relatively limited historical supply between the $2,200 and $2,800 bearish cluster, meaning that a break above the current range would allow the price to move freely into that range.

From a technical point of view, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is also interrupted at the $2,800 level on the daily chart, a key indicator ETH has not reached since early January.

But initial data suggests traders should be cautious near the current price range.

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Ether futures movement will disappear after testing $2,200

Ether futures activity has expanded during this week's rally, with open interest rising 21% to $10.9 billion from $9 billion this week as the price pushed to $2,200. The increase suggests that traders were opening new leveraged positions as Ether moved higher.

However, the position changed after ETH tested the upper range. Open interest fell 6% after the $2,200 test, indicating that some traders began closing positions rather than adding new exposure.

A pullback suggests that long traders may take profits or reduce risk around the upper limit of the range, slowing the rally.

Spot market activity has seen demand improve during the period. Spot Volume Cumulative Delta (CVD), which tracks fractional buying and selling, rose to $87 million from -$150 million on March 8, indicating buyers stepped in as Ether rebounded from the $2,000 range.

However, order-flow data reflected fading bullishness. Ether has strengthened around $2,000 as the bid-ask ratio remains strongly positive, indicating that buyers are dominating trading at the regional level.

That strength dissipated as the price neared $2,150, reducing buying pressure near the top of the move.

Hyblock Data offers more transparency on derivatives markets. The futures position remains relatively balanced, with long traders accounting for 59.4% of Ether futures exposure on Binance.

Such a balanced view often results in price action as the market struggles to decisively break nearby resistance levels.

The data shows a divergence, but the previous ETH stock is headed for a rally towards $2,800. With this in mind, Ether futures traders are obviously cautious near ETH's current range.

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