ETH needs to reverse this daily trend to trigger the 20% Rally.

Ether (ETH)'s 10% rise in January has refocused analysts' attention on the daily chart, where the price structure shows higher prices but only if a key daily trend retraces.

Main Receptors:

Ether is close to completing a daily double bottom targeting the $3,900 level.

The 200-period EMA remains an important trend that ETH needs to reverse.

Sound Delta data shows retail-led buying pressure, but whales continue to reduce exposure.

A double bottom forms when ETH tests structural resistance.

Ether's daily chart shows a developing double bottom that took shape at Q4 2025, indicating repeated resistance of the demand zone. If confirmed, the divergence action would target around $3,900, which is about 20% above current levels.

However, the immediate barrier is the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA). If the broad trend turned bearish in November, ETH failed twice to return to this level, each rejection leading to the downside. With the price retesting the EMA, the altcoin faces a key inflection point.

A sustained daily close above the 200-EMA indicates acceptance above long-term trend resistance. Structurally, a strong close above $3,300 would mark a major structural break on the daily chart, reinforcing a double bottom.

Related: Ethereum staking sees tidal change as validator exit queue clears

Volume Delta data highlights retail-led recovery

Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) tracks the net difference between market buys and sells over time. Rising CVD shows buyer dominance, where aggressive buyers raise prices rather than passively wait.

CryptoQuant data shows that both spot and futures CVDs have trended higher over the past three weeks, indicating continued demand in the spot and leveraged markets. When these are lined up, it reflects the confidence of the buyer rather than covering the shorts.

But HighBlock Capital's data points to differences beneath the surface. Whale Bags ($100,000–$10 million) recorded a negative $40 million cumulative delta this week, indicating net sales. Meanwhile, retail ($1,000–$10,000) and mid-sized traders ($10,000–$100,000) posted small positive deltas of $3.40 million and $28 million in the last six days.

This division shows that smaller participants are driving Ether's recovery. Whether ETH can break above the 200-EMA may determine whether the big players re-enter or if the price stops below resistance.

Related: Grayscale Announces First Ethereum Fee for US-Listed ETF

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