ETH tests $3.2k but the US macro and other obstacles remain

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Ether trades around $3,200 as weak network usage and uncertainty over the US economy limit its price.

Layer-2 networks drive most of Ethereum's activity, but cheaper rival blockchains reduce the chances of Ether hitting $4,000 anytime soon.

The price of Ether (ETH) has repeatedly failed to sustain levels above $3,300 over the past 60 days, prompting traders to question whether a sustained bullish trend is still within reach in 2026. Although the Ethereum network has made important improvements and has taken the leading position in terms of deposits, investors are worried that the probability of returning to the $4,000 level is low.

Ether's performance since November has closely tracked the broader cryptocurrency market capitalization. As a result, the lack of optimism appears to be driven more by the weak general use of decentralized applications (DApps) than by issues specific to the Ethereum ecosystem. While traders' concerns stem from broader economic risks, ETH's upside in the short term appears to be limited.

Ether tracks the broader crypto market amid weak app usage

Regardless of the factors affecting bullish crypto investors, traders have shown less interest in DApps, as reflected in declining activity on the decentralized exchange (DEX). According to Defillama, total DEX volumes totaled $150.4 billion in the past two weeks, down 55 percent from the all-time high of $340 billion set in January 2025.

After reaching $27.8 billion in October 2025, Ethereum's 7-day DEX volumes have hovered around $9 billion. Even so, the combination of Base, Arbitrum, Polygon and other layer-2 solutions continues to dominate the Ethereum ecosystem, accounting for 50% of DEX activity.

Ethereum's leader in Total Value Locked (TVL) is strong evidence of institutional investors' preference as competitors such as Tron, Solana and BNB Chain earn higher network fees. Some market participants argue that Ethereum has failed to fully monetize its dominance of smart contract deposits, a result that is largely intentional and stems from the leverage strategy built around the bundle.

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The number of transactions on Solana exceeded that of all 10 major competitors combined, demonstrating the network's reliance on strong validation processes and a semi-centralized development structure led by Solana Labs. According to Nansen data, while Ethereum processed 54.4 million transactions in a 30-day period, the Layer-2 network base recorded more than 600 million transactions in the same time frame.

Ether's two-month trading below $3,200 has been particularly challenging for companies that have raised debt or equity. For example, Bitmine Immersion (BMNR US) currently holds $13.2 billion worth of Ether, and its shares are down 9% in value for those holdings, based on CoinGecko data.

It's unclear what incentive could bring it back into ETH's favor, especially since rival networks offer comparable DApps and functionality to average users, often with low friction due to base-layer expansion. Ether's path back to $4,000 and above will depend heavily on renewed interest in blockchain applications amid continued uncertainty in the US economy and broader cryptocurrency risk appetite.