Is it time to leave?
Bitcoin touched a low below $64,000 as the market sold off to historic levels, and analysts warn that the bottom has not been reached. Does the data support analysts' forecasts below $60,000?
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 13% in the last four days, sliding from $79,300 to $63,844. It is currently trading below $69,000, the high of the 2021 bull market, a level many see as a support level.
BTC open interest has fallen by more than $10 billion over the past seven days, coinciding with a sharp decline in futures activity.
Analysts are now focusing on long-term technical zones and onchain indicators that will bring big changes for BTC.
Main Receptors:
Bitcoin is down 13% in four days, slipping below the 2021 cycle to around $69,000 after a sharp relaunch.
Bitcoin's key demand zone between $58,000 and $69,000 is supported by heavy trading volume and the 200-week moving average.
Oversold technical and sentiment indicators suggest that bearish pressure for BTC is at its peak, even if a support rally is not seen.
Why the $69,000 level is important for Bitcoin
The $69,000 level represents the peak of the 2021 bull market. Previous cycle highs have historically acted as support during bear markets. In the last cycle, Bitcoin dropped to its 2017 high of $19,600 before briefly dropping to $16,000 in November 2022.
A decline below $69,000 could follow this pattern. However, past cycles show that prices can fall below previous highs before a final bottom is formed. This leaves a low risk opening for BTC.
According to Andre Dragos, head of research for Bitwise Europe, a large share of recent transactions occurred between $58,000 and $69,000. This range aligns with the 200-week moving average near $58,000, solidifying it as a key interest zone.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst exitpump highlighted that large BTC bids between $68,000 and $65,000 are seen on the order books, indicating buyer interest on the dip.
RELATED: Bitcoin Price Could Drop Below $64K As Veteran Raises ‘Camp Selling' Alert
BTC flashes record oversold signals
Market analyst SubuTrade's Bitcoin Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 30. Bitcoin has reached this level only four times, and in each case, the price increased by an average of 16% over the next four days.
Crypto analyst MorenoDV also noted that adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (ANULL) has turned negative for the first time since 2023. Similar scenarios in 2018–2019, 2020 and 2022–2023 all resulted in a price recovery for BTC.
Although a relief rally may not take shape immediately, Moreno pointed out that the current “deterioration of sentiment” is much faster than in previous cycles. The analyst added,
“This rapid transition suggests an acute recovery of sentiment rather than a gradual decline, which could shorten capital levels.”
RELATED: Three Signs That Bitcoin Price May Be Close To ‘Full Cap'
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